Just when the European cheese market looked clear, and players within the cheese market had a somewhat unified view, a surprisingly positive GDT event and price volatility in the fats side of the dairy market have created more uncertainty again, see Figure 1.

European cheese market
Figure 1: Price Comparison between European Cheese Prices and GDT in EUR/mt

This week’s European Vesper Price Index (07/02/2024) saw a decrease in mozzarella to €3520 | $3786 per metric tonne ( $1.72/ lb) EXW. Similarly, for Gouda, the index dropped to €3850 | $4141 per metric tonne ($1.88/ lb) EXW. However, the Vesper Price Index for emmental remained unchanged at €4400 | $4733 per metric tonne ($2.15/ lb) EXW. Lastly, the index for cheddar (curd) also held steady at €4000 | $4303 per metric tonne ( $1.95/ lb) EXW.

Some players have changed their view of the cheese market and have become stable to slightly bullish based on the new facts and figures, while others have only become slightly less bearish over the past week.

Compared to previous weeks, we do see a clear uptick in interest over the past week to cover Q2 around the current price level, as many buyers are starting to ask for offers for many cheeses.

Even though the fundamentals are pointing towards stable to possibly slightly lower prices, the increased demand for Q2 creates the feeling that we might not go much lower in price than what we see today.

For now, it does not seem like the fundamentals have changed much. So, the weekly milk output numbers will be the key point of interest in the weeks to come.

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