Futures — Vesper Market News

October white sugar delivery lands at a third of last year's

Under 500,000 tonnes were delivered against October London white sugar, against over 1.5 million a year ago, while funds built their largest long since 2023.

Record Brazilian shipments leave coffee near flat on the week

Brazil shipped a seasonal record of Arabica and Robusta in August, yet December coffee fell only 0.8 cents on the week. Outside markets explain the gap.

Festival buying lifts cumin while coriander futures slide

Cumin ground higher through early September on festival buying while coriander futures dropped close to 5% with spot flat. Turmeric ended the fortnight nowhere.

Ghana's state exporter guides cocoa output down by up to 38%

Ghana's state exporter now guides 2026/27 output to 470,000-620,000 tonnes against 760,000 a year earlier, while forecasters still split on deficit or surplus.

Malaysian palm stocks climb 7.5% while Q4 supply looks thinner

August MPOB data put Malaysian palm stocks up 7.5% at 2.82 mmt and BMD prices eased, but the Q4 view is tighter. Rapeseed sowing is the nearer European risk.

Brazil's record-wet September pulls arabica below $3

The December contract lost 18.15 cents to $2.91 a pound. Brazil is on track for one of its wettest September starts on record, with flowering spreading widely.

Cocoa drops 12% in a week short on fundamental news

ICE Europe fell 12% and ICE US 11% on little fresh input, while Ghana's proposed farmgate price sits around 75% above the Ivorian level for the new season.

Indonesia confirms B50; Vesper sees 1 mmt of extra demand

Full B50 would lift palm oil going into Indonesian biofuels by 2.4 million tonnes. Vesper's estimate for growth beyond B40 without the full step is 1 million.

Black Sea deadlock lifts wheat, corn and barley

MATIF wheat and corn climbed again as Black Sea talks stalled and Egypt's wheat arrivals fell 75% year-on-year. Vesper's Q3 view stays sideways to up.

Brazilian selling pulls coffee back toward $3

December coffee fell 9.8 cents to 311.50 US cents per pound as Brazilian exporters stepped up hedging. Sucafina sees support near $3 per pound.

India's duty-free sugar imports lose their appeal

India approved 1 MMT of duty-free raw sugar imports, but mills may take only half of it. EU output is set to fall almost 20% as drought hits beet yields.

Cocoa futures jump 12% into the new crop year

London cocoa gained 12.3% in a week while Ivory Coast is expected to hold its farmgate price at 1,200 CFA francs. Here is what sits behind the move.

Coffee rallies again while Arabica stays in surplus

December coffee finished at $3.4165/lb after a 23.75 cent weekly gain. The market agrees Arabica is in surplus, so the rally is about something else.

Deferred palm oil contracts price in an El Nino loss

GAPKI says an extreme El Nino could cut Indonesian palm oil output by up to 3 million tonnes next season. The futures curve is already splitting on it.

US cattle placements fall 11% and feedyard losses deepen

July placements came in at 1.42 million head, well short of every estimate, while feedyards carry cash losses of $300 to $400 a head and rising corn costs.

Black Sea export losses keep grains prices elevated into September

Wheat and corn are holding near recent highs as Ukrainian and Russian export losses tighten global supply, while soybeans rally on strong Chinese demand.

US milk: a summer hiccup or a real shift?

Heat has thinned US milk supply and lifted NFDM, but a growing herd and a wide feed-to-milk margin suggest the tightness fades once Q4 arrives.

Unsold cocoa stock in Ivory Coast keeps a lid on prices

ICE cocoa futures fell 7-8.5% this week as high Ivory Coast arrivals and an uncertain unsold-stock overhang weigh on price.

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Wheat pulled back this fortnight even though the Black Sea disruption remains unresolved, while corn, barley and soybean each moved on their own drivers.

Brazil's coffee quality disappoints, and ICE-certified stocks stay tight

Sucafina says Brazil's new coffee crop is falling short on cup quality and screen size, leaving little relief for coffee's shrinking ICE-certified stockpile.

El Niño risk spreads across sugar-growing regions, lifting prices

Sugar futures rose 3.8% as El Niño intensifies, threatening crops in Brazil, India, Thailand and the EU just as the 2026/27 balance tightens.

Coffee futures rally: exchange stocks fall below a key threshold

ICE-certified coffee stocks dropped below the closely watched 300,000-bag threshold, pushing the September contract up 17.3 cents on the week.

Black Sea disruption and EU heat lift wheat and corn to multi-year highs

Euronext milling wheat and corn jumped to multi-year highs as Black Sea shipping attacks and a European heatwave hit crops heading into harvest.

Cocoa grindings rise nearly 10%, but prices swing both ways

Global cocoa grindings rose 9.95% year on year, confirming demand is holding, but London and New York futures still fell nearly 9% on the data.

Coffee holds a tense range as ICE margin hikes thin out trading

Coffee futures are stuck in a tense range as ICE margin hikes drain liquidity, pricing out smaller traders and sharpening moves on thin volume.

Most starches firm on rising costs; potato holds steady

Wheat, tapioca and corn starch are firming on higher input costs and tight supply, while potato starch holds steady on ample stocks and weak demand.

Coffee pulls back from record rally, settles near $3.30

Coffee futures cooled this week, with the September contract settling near $3.30/lb after a record rally. What happens next hinges on Brazil's harvest.

Why cocoa can jump 20% in two weeks and drop 7% in a day

Cocoa futures swung from a 19.6% weekly gain to a 7% one-day drop. Martijn Bron unpacks the volatility, the crop worries behind it, and what buyers face.

Cocoa jumps 14% in a day on El Niño supply risk

ICE cocoa futures gained more than 14% in one session and are up around 50% in a month as the market prices El Niño risk to West Africa and Ecuador.

Coffee posts its biggest one-day gain on record

Arabica futures jumped 72 cents in a week, including the largest single-day gain on record. Sucafina traces the move to fund flows and El Niño risk.

Heatwave lifts Euronext corn to a multi-year high

Heat damage puts French corn on course for a 26-year low, lifting Euronext corn to a multi-year high while wheat eases on strong harvest progress.

Soybean oil is pricing itself out of the US biofuel mix

Soybean oil's share of US biofuel feedstocks fell to 37% in April as producers switched to corn oil, tallow, and UCO. Vesper's weekly vegetable oils view.

US milk powder keeps falling, heat wave or not

US NFDM fell 5.8% to $1.505/lb, now 34% below its May peak, as record milk-powder output kept prices sliding even as a heat wave finally arrived.

A heatwave lifted EU butter and SMP. Will it hold?

A European heatwave cut milk and cream output, lifting EU spot butter nearly 3% and SMP about 2%. But with stocks near a five-year high, will the rally hold?

Coffee shorts retreat while Colombian differentials top 60 cents

Coffee futures jumped 7.8 cents to $2.67/lb as overextended shorts unwound, while Colombian differentials topped +60 cents on tight, high-quality supply.

White sugar rallies on weather risk while physical prices sit still

White sugar futures rallied to $475/mt on El Niño and heatwave risk to crops in India and the EU, even as physical prices stayed calm on comfortable supply.

Cocoa rallies more than 30%; deficit fears return for next season

Cocoa has rallied more than 30% off its lows as the market turns to next season's West African crop, with New York on track for its best month since late 2024.

US butter: record output, leanest May stocks in four years

US butter makers are running flat out yet stocks ended May at 335.6m lbs, the lowest May reading since 2022 and down 8%, despite record four-month output.

Summer lull pulls cheese prices further from their spring peak

European cheese has drifted further from its spring peak as the summer lull sets in, with Q3 covered and sellers left to increasingly competitive spot trades.

Cocoa jumps 11% as the market turns to El Niño supply risk

Cocoa snapped higher with ICE London July futures up 11% to £3,488/t and New York up 11% to $4,545/t, as the market turned to 2026/27 supply risk.

Coffee futures climb as short sellers bail out

Coffee futures pushed higher again, with the September ICE contract up 7.8 cents to $2.67 a pound as overextended short positions were forced to liquidate.

Hot weather lifts EU grains while US futures slip

European grains firmed over two weeks as hot, dry weather raised yield worries, while US futures fell under harvest pressure and a sliding crude oil price.

Palm oil holds firm while Brent slides on US-Iran thaw

BMD crude palm oil rebounded to $1,110/mt from $1,089/mt even as Brent slipped to $77.9 a barrel, with biofuel policy and weather now leading the market.

Cocoa futures rebound on macro mood, not fundamentals

Cocoa had been one of the quieter markets of late spring, shrugging off higher Ivory Coast arrivals and El Niño chatter alike. Then London opened sharply up.

Coffee futures slide as speculators build their biggest short since 2023

Coffee futures fell again, the July contract down 13.3 cents to 245.9 US cents/lb, as speculators built their largest short position since 2023, says Sucafina.

Grains slip across the board on better US weather

Grain prices fell over two weeks as better US and EU weather, weaker soybeans and softer Brent crude pulled wheat, corn and barley back off recent gains.

Coffee futures slide to a two-year low as Brazil's harvest builds

Coffee futures fell 13.7 cents on the July contract to $2.60 a pound, the lowest since November 2024, as Brazil's harvest builds, according to Sucafina.

Thai rice up 25%, wheat swings 40 EUR in a month: grains reprice across the board

Thai rice rose 16 to 25% in May, parboiled A1 leading from 220.73 to 275.61 USD/mt, while EU milling wheat fell to 180 EUR/mt then jumped 36 EUR the next day.

Cocoa rally fades as weak demand meets a bigger Ivorian crop

Cocoa opened last week with a strong rally then gave it back over consecutive down days, a pattern Martijn Bron puts down to silly season volatility.

Record May temperatures lift European grain futures as US crop weather eases CBOT

European and US grains diverged, with Euronext milling wheat up to EUR 214/mt while CBOT SRW wheat fell to 648 cents/bu from 678 on easing crop weather.

Roasters build strongest seasonal coverage since 2022 as arabica futures hold at $2.70

The July arabica contract finished 8 cents higher at 272.35 US cents per pound, finding firmer support at $2.70 than expected as roasters built coverage.

US milk powder prices slip as production growth cools

US nonfat dry milk fell about $0.20/lb in a week, New Zealand powder dropped $200/mt at the GDT pulse, and European quotes eased from €2,900 to €2,800/mt.

US NFDM falls $0.20/lb in a week as global milk powder markets follow

US NFDM fell around $0.20/lb in a week and the move travelled, with NZ SMP down $200/mt at the latest GDT pulse event and European SMP easing alongside.

EU cocoa futures post a 10% single-session gain as the Silly Season takes hold

EU cocoa rose 7% on the week to 3,153 GBP/t for front-month July 2026, while the September contract gained 8% and at one point rallied over 10% in a session.

Indonesia's export overhaul casts shadow over palm oil as Iran peace talks weigh on energy prices

Indonesia has announced export centralisation for key commodities including palm oil from June 1, aimed at under-invoicing, onto an already softening market.

Coffee futures fall to $2.64 as US demand weakens and Brazil's record crop approaches

Coffee futures dropped to $2.64 per pound with the July contract losing 18.1 cents, as US demand weakened and Brazil's record crop drew closer.

European butter builds up while US milk powder holds the global floor

The global dairy market is running two stories at once: US NFDM is historically expensive and hard to source, while European butter production keeps building.

Grains slip on US-China summit disappointment despite tight wheat supply underneath

The US-China summit brought no soybean purchase commitments and no tariff cuts, and CBOT soybeans fell from 1,207 to 1,174 cents per bushel in response.

Sugar's 2026/27 deficit is confirmed, but the size gap between forecasters is enormous

The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global deficit of 262,000 tonnes, a directional signal, though the spread between forecasters is huge.

El Nino shifts Cocoa Week London from bearish demand to cautious supply concern

Delegates arrived at Cocoa Week London focused on weak confectionery demand and left worried about supply instead. El Niño was the catalyst for the shift.

Coffee fails to break range despite fresh spec buying

The July ICE coffee contract closed the week 3.2 cents lower at 282.3 US cents/lb, even as speculators added 1,645 lots to their net long, a 9.9% increase.

NFDM domestic demand jumped 178% in Q1 as US dairy markets diverge

The CME spot call closed mixed as the complex absorbed a stronger dollar and the US-China summit, with blocks down 6 cents and barrels down 3, both to $1.57.

European cheese prices rise as Q3 buyers return

European cheese prices have moved higher over two weeks, but in stops and starts, as fresh spot and Q3 demand lifted a market that had been drifting lower.

Cocoa rallies 30% in a week on short-covering and crop risk

EU cocoa front-month May 2026 futures closed up 34% on the week at 3,551 GBP/t, with gains spread across the curve rather than concentrated in the front.

Cotton rally and drought threaten US peanut crop, acreage cuts could top 20%

The US peanut market has reversed from oversupply concern to whether growers can plant at all, as cotton climbs at least 18% and pulls acreage away.

US milk powder shortage pulls EU and Oceania SMP prices higher

European and New Zealand SMP climbed again, with NZ passing $3,600/mt at the GDT auction while US NFDM keeps printing new highs on the CME spot call.

Cocoa futures climb on El Niño concerns despite record surplus outlook

London July cocoa futures rose about 10% in two weeks on FMCG buying tied to El Niño, despite a forecast record 2025/26 surplus of 550,000-600,000 tonnes.

Butter weakens while milk powders climb on record US NFDM pricing

Butter and milk powders are moving in opposite directions, with heavy milk flows pressuring butterfat while US NFDM hit a CME record and pulled SMP higher.

Coffee futures slip to USD 2.88/lb on improved roaster coverage

Coffee futures fell 8.5 cents to USD 2.878/lb on the July contract, dropping below the USD 2.90 to 3.05 range that held through the Iran conflict.

Energy costs drive starch prices higher across wheat, corn and tapioca

Wheat, tapioca and corn starch prices all rose month on month in April, as energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict squeezed margins and Q2 contracts.

European cocoa grindings drop to decade low on weak chocolate demand

European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year on year in Q1 2026 to 325,895 mt, the lowest quarterly total in more than a decade, on weak chocolate demand.

Wheat and corn prices fall on lower crude and higher supply estimates

Euronext milling wheat dropped to EUR 194/mt from EUR 205/mt and French wheat flour to EUR 309/mt, after a broadly bearish April WASDE report.

Coffee futures climb to $2.96/lb on ceasefire news

The July coffee contract rose 3.85 cents to close at $2.9635 per pound, rallying on ceasefire news after testing a low of $2.79 earlier in the week.

Coffee prices break below $2.90/lb support on Middle East uncertainty

Coffee futures ended the week at 286 US cents per pound, down 12.35 cents, as a deteriorating risk environment around the Iran conflict weighed on prices.

Butter leads dairy prices lower at start of Q2 flush season

Dairy markets entered a calmer phase at the start of Q2, with the flush season adding pressure to butter, SMP and WMP prices in Europe and New Zealand.

Cocoa grindings extend decline with chocolate demand under sustained pressure

Cocoa grindings look set to stay well below historical levels through 2025/26, with European volumes down 8.3% in Q4 and pressure across the chocolate trade.

Coffee futures pull back sharply after brief rally, with Brazil's harvest on the horizon

Coffee futures fell sharply, the May contract losing 14.45 cents to 292.55 US cents per pound, after a brief run to $3.19/lb met heavy commercial selling.

Cocoa prices stage end-of-quarter rally, but cost pressures cloud the chocolate outlook

Cocoa rallied at the end of March, EU futures gaining 7% in a session to £2,487/mt, though the move points to short-covering rather than changed fundamentals.

European cheese markets turn softer at the start of Q2

After a firm Q1 held tight by export demand, European cheese is softening as high production and a less favourable exchange rate press on sellers.

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Wheat, corn, barley and soybeans stayed elevated on Brent crude support, though US signals that the Middle East conflict could end soon are being priced in.

Coffee futures break above $3/lb as tight supply and energy costs provide support

Coffee futures rose 14.15 cents on the week to close at USD 3.07/lb on the May contract, breaking above $3.00 for the first time on tight supply and energy.

European butter prices correct sharply while SMP holds firm

European butter fell from close to EUR 5,000/mt to as low as EUR 4,200/mt in days, after fresh and older volumes came to market at the EUR 5,000 level.

Ivory Coast weighs cocoa pricing reform after beans pile up at ports

Ivory Coast is weighing a reform that would make government-set farmer prices more responsive to international levels, according to sources cited by Reuters.

Corn and wheat prices climb on energy costs and tighter 2026 supply forecasts

Corn and wheat rose over two weeks on higher Brent crude and cuts to 2026 supply forecasts, with Euronext milling wheat up to EUR 207/mt from EUR 202/mt.

NFDM prices approach 10-year highs as US supply tightens

US non-fat dry milk rose a further USD 0.08/lb on the week, a 4.53% gain that leaves prices just USD 0.055/lb below their ten-year highs on tighter supply.

Wheat futures rally, but cash markets tell a different story

Wheat futures have pushed higher, but a growing disconnect with cash markets points to a correction, while barley exports run at multi-year highs.

Cocoa farmers in Brazil cancel expansion plans as low prices bite

Brazilian cocoa farmers expect to cancel around 50% of planned industrial cultivation projects, as prices below $3,000/t make new investment unviable.

Coffee futures pull back on record Brazil crop expectations

Coffee futures fell 4.05 cents on the week to 292.85 US cents/lb on the May contract, after touching 297.45, as record Brazil crop expectations weighed.

Chocolate forecast 2026: cocoa, sugar, vegetable oils, nuts

Chocolate manufacturers face an ingredient picture very different from the start of the year: cocoa has fallen sharply while other input costs have risen.

US Dairy forecast: milk, butter, smp, cheeses, WPC80

The US dairy market entered 2026 expected to be well supplied. That has changed: butter is tight, powder is tight, and whey protein is the tightest in years.

US dairy market forecast 2026: butter stocks at five-year low as demand and exports tighten supply

US butter is far tighter than expected into 2026: January output rose 6% to 231 million pounds, yet demand and exports left stocks down 17% on the year.

US dairy exports hit records as American product finds new markets worldwide

US butterfat exports are up 166% year on year and cheese exports have hit all-time highs, driven largely by competitive American pricing on global markets.

Coffee approaches $3/lb as geopolitical risks support market

Coffee futures rallied toward $3 per pound, with the May contract up 12.3 cents to $2.969, as geopolitical tension and shipping risk tightened supply.

Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

Vesper models three Brent oil scenarios, at $80, $120 and $150, and traces what each would mean for global commodity markets and procurement planning.

Cocoa sector turmoil deepens in Ivory Coast and Ghana

Disruption in the Ivory Coast and Ghana cocoa sectors is deepening, with unsold beans, delayed payments and falling farmgate prices destabilising the market.

How the Middle East conflict is moving commodity markets

As the Middle East conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude tops $105, find out how it's moving prices across commodity markets.

Coffee futures slip below $3/lb as supply improves, Middle East conflict adds volatility

Arabica futures fell to $2.83/lb as certified stock availability improved and roasters held back purchases, with the Middle East conflict adding volatility.

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

Grain markets rose over two weeks with the Middle East conflict the main driver, as Brent crude gained $8.50 to $81.40 a barrel and lifted wheat and corn.

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

How Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact food commodity market

Middle East tensions and restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude higher. How that could reach food commodity markets.

Coffee prices ease as market weighs tariff ruling against supply dynamics

Coffee on the May contract fell 3.6 cents over two weeks to 285 US cents per pound, as a US tariff ruling and supply signals pulled in opposite directions.

WPC80 market tightens further as Q2 volumes near sold out across Europe and the US

WPC80 is tightening fast with Q2 volumes close to sold out across Europe and the US, and buyers now focused on securing volume rather than on price.

US-Iran tensions push Brent crude higher, lifting vegetable oil prices

Concern over a potential US-Iran conflict pushed Brent to $71.5 a barrel from $68.65, lifting vegetable oil prices broadly across the complex in week 9.

European cheese prices hold firm in February, defying seasonal correction expectations

EU Gouda and Mozzarella have risen to around €3,300/mt in February, as low stocks and firm producer pricing defy the correction the trade had expected.

Structural shift in US skim milk use keeps NFDM markets tight

Four consecutive years of falling US NFDM production point to a structural shift in where skim milk is going toward MPC and butter.

India's soybean oil duty cut set to reshape vegetable oil import dynamics

India's planned reduction in soybean oil import duties under US trade agreement expected to reshape procurement patterns and intensify competition across palm,

Cocoa futures recover modestly as Ghana payment crisis leaves 150,000 mt stuck

Cocoa futures recovered slightly after sharp declines, but a payment crisis in Ghana and Ivory Coast has left farmers unpaid and 150,000 mt of beans stuck.

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

U.S. milk powder prices surge 30% in one month on supply squeeze

CME nonfat dry milk prices surged 30% in one month as low November production triggered a short squeeze. Analysis suggests prices may be...

Europe faces Easter egg shortage as Poland loses 5 million laying hens

Poland has lost at least 5 million laying hens in six weeks, nearly 10% of national capacity, pointing to severe Easter egg shortages across Europe.

Coffee futures drop 50 cents as roaster demand and exchange inventory shift

Coffee March contract dropped 50.1 cents to 317.1 cents per pound as roaster fixations concluded and exchange inventory began rebuilding.

U.S. milk production rises 4.4% despite prices below cost of production

US producers pushed milk output to record levels in December 2025, even with Class III futures at $14.58 per cwt and Class IV below the cost of production.

Cocoa futures decline 30% in one month as speculators exit and grind data disappoints

Cocoa futures fell 30% in a month as Q4 grind data showed an 8.25% European decline and Ivory Coast faced trader defaults on sharply lower prices.

European skim milk powder reaches €2,200 per tonne as short squeeze lifts dairy prices

European skim milk powder reached €2,200 per tonne in late January as a short squeeze lifted prices 10%, despite structurally weak long-term fundamentals.

Coffee futures rise toward 365-370 cents per pound as roasters accelerate March fixations

Coffee futures rose 0.95 cents to 356.25 cents as roasters accelerated March fixations before first notice day, with technical buying expected to push higher.

Palm oil prices rise on strong January exports as Indian buyers shift from soybean oil

BMD crude palm oil rose to $1,051/mt from $1,003/mt on Malaysian January exports up 8-10%, as Indian buyers cancelled soybean oil shipments in favour of palm.

Cocoa prices hit 2-year low as farmgate pricing crisis leaves African beans stranded at ports

London cocoa fell over 12% to 3,347 GBP/t, a two-year low, as fixed farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana created a West African supply bottleneck.

Coffee futures fall to 346.5 US cents per pound amid Central American harvest pressure

Coffee futures fell 13.75 cents to 346.5 US cents per pound on the March contract, as Central American origins including Honduras reach peak harvest.

Cocoa market seeks equilibrium after 50% price retreat

Cocoa futures trade in a narrow range as the market seeks equilibrium after a 50% retracement, with mild Harmattan and good rainfall supporting West Africa.

U.S. dairy prices hit multi-year lows to close 2025

US dairy ended 2025 with declines across every category, butter down 45% and cheese down 28%, as abundant milk supplies reshaped the pricing landscape.

Südzucker takes radical position with 15-25% beet reduction

Südzucker has announced beet reductions of 15 to 25% from its farmers and subsidiaries, a far more radical step than competitors including Tereos have taken.

Record cocoa short position reaches half a million metric tons

Managed money now holds a half million tonne short position in cocoa futures, a size that has never failed to hurt speculators, says analyst Martijn Bron.

European wheat faces competition squeeze amid strong euro and record global output

French wheat flour has fallen to EUR 283/mt as record global output and an 11% euro appreciation squeeze European exporters against Russia and Argentina.

Coffee futures hold range despite record December delivery amid tariff relief

Coffee traded a 370-390 range as a record December delivery inversion worth a $21 million premium offset US tariff relief on Brazilian coffee imports.

Palm oil prices decline on weaker crude oil and slower Malaysian shipments

BMD crude palm oil fell to $976/mt from $993/mt as Malaysian shipments dropped 19% in November and soybean oil faced pressure from China trade concerns.

Global milk production overwhelms demand, timing mismatches amplify market pain

US cheese hit 2025 lows and the butter spread to retail topped $2.77/lb, as strong milk output across the US, Europe and New Zealand overwhelms demand.

Coffee futures fall 16.55 cents amid partial US tariff relief

Coffee futures fell 16.55 cents to $376.6 US cents/lb after the White House announced tariff exemptions that excluded both Brazil and India from relief.

Chocolate demand pressures mount with Singles Day spending decline

Cocoa fell more than 9% this week to around 4,202 GBP/t, as Singles Day spending dropped 20% and Barry Callebaut reported a 5.3% fall in chocolate volumes.

Coffee futures hold near $4 amid Supreme Court tariff uncertainty

Coffee futures ended the week at 393.15 US cents per pound, within reach of $4, as the Supreme Court weighs the legality of tariffs imposed under IEEPA.

European cheese exports surge as dollar strength reshapes global trade flows

European cheese has regained export competitiveness as a stronger dollar pushes Asian buyers from US to EU suppliers, clearing stocks and steadying prices.

Rapeseed oil prices hold firm on tight supply and biodiesel policy expectations

December crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill reached EUR 1,085/mt, up from EUR 1,075/mt, with the market in backwardation on tight European Union supply.

Beef grading reaches record highs as choice-select spread narrows

Cattle grading performance has reached all-time highs for the season, with prime near 12.8% and choice at 73.2%, while the choice-select spread narrows.

Coffee futures rise to $387.7 as index roll period supports market

Coffee futures climbed to $387.7 cents per pound as strong roaster demand and the approaching index roll period prevented the correction the market expected.

European sugar producers face break-even crisis with prices at €450

European sugar has fallen to €450 ex-factory beet belt on a bulk basis, pushing producers toward break-even after sharp declines in New York 11 futures.

Arabica prices seen falling to $3.50 per pound on political and supply shifts

Coffee futures are heading for a correction toward $3.50 per pound from 391.55 cents, as Trump signals tariff relief and Brazil's crop outlook improves.

Raw sugar prices hit four-year lows on surplus concerns

Raw sugar futures fell to 14.37 cents per pound, the lowest since April 2021, after São Paulo conferences raised Brazilian output and Indian export concerns.

Trump-Xi meeting drives grain prices higher as markets anticipate soybean trade resumption

US grain futures rallied ahead of the Trump and Xi meeting, with CBOT soybeans jumping to 1,078 cents a bushel from 1,006 two weeks earlier on purchase hopes.

US cheese prices rise above European levels, affecting international competitiveness

US cheese has climbed to levels where international competitiveness is a challenge, with cheddar at $1.78 a pound while Europe offers very competitive prices.

US butter prices drop sharply on CME as abundant milk supply weighs on dairy markets

CME butter has fallen sharply as US milk production grows 3% year on year alongside higher output from New Zealand and Europe, pressuring the whole market.

Coffee prices climb on tight supply concerns despite favorable Brazilian weather

Coffee futures gained 13.9 cents to 413.55 US cents per pound as certified stocks decline and US-Colombia trade tension threatens supply, defying forecasts.

European sugar prices decline over 20% since May

European sugar prices have fallen over 20% since May to €475/tonne as exceptional harvest yields and evolving market dynamics reshape pricing

Cocoa prices fall 20% over past month as main crop expectations remain optimistic

Cocoa futures fall 20% in a month as West African main crop expectations remain optimistic. European Q3 grindings beat estimates.

Global grain surplus puts buyers in control as sellers compete for market share

Record wheat, corn and barley harvests have put buyers in control, with French wheat flour up EUR 2/mt to EUR 284/mt on firmer Euronext milling wheat.

European sugar prices trade below import parity while 2026 acreage faces potential cuts

European beet belt sugar prices are trading below the €586 per tonne import parity threshold, while early data points to a 3% acreage cut for 2026.

Sunflower oil prices climb as crop forecasts deteriorate across key producing regions

Crude sunflower oil for November-December delivery rose $10/mt to $1,360/mt at Ukrainian ports, as crop forecasts in Ukraine and Russia keep deteriorating.

Coffee futures decline 17.7 cents to 373.60 cents per pound

Coffee prices dropped to 373.60 cents/lb last week. Brazilian rainfall supports 26/27 crop development with expectations of 5+ million bags..

Coffee futures rise as certified stock decertification accelerates

Coffee futures rose 12.7 cents to 390.75 US cents per pound on the December contract, driven by rapid ICE stock decertification and Brazilian weather worries.

European sugar prices fall below import parity amid 2025 harvest season

European white sugar for 2026 delivery has dropped below import parity for the first time in a year, opening a rare window for manufacturers to cover.

How the EUDR delay is influencing cocoa prices and market structure

Discover how the EUDR delay, market structure shifts, and hedge fund shorts are influencing cocoa prices and procurement strategies.

US dairy markets rebound as butter and cheese prices rise on CME

US butter and cheese bounced back strongly on the CME call, despite mixed cold storage data and continuing questions about long-term market direction.

Raw sugar futures recover as Brazilian mills eye ethanol production shift

Raw sugar futures bounced back to $16.1/lb as Brazilian mills signal potential pivot to ethanol production. European yields exceed forecasts..

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Beef prices face pressure as wholesale demand shows signs of cooling

Wholesale beef prices have fallen sharply since Labor Day with chuck cuts leading lower. What the demand shift means for fourth-quarter procurement.

Coffee prices increase on inventory drawdown after technical selloff

Coffee rallied after ICE certified stocks fell 11.5% in five days, with the December contract jumping 11.55 cents to $3.7805 and reversing a technical selloff.

Global butter prices plummet as oversupply hits all major markets

Butter has fallen below ten-year averages as milk production surges 5.44% in the US and 2.46% in New Zealand, with CME butter down to $1.68 per pound.

Ukrainian rapeseed export delays drive European oil prices higher

MATIF rapeseed rose EUR 1/mt to EUR 471/mt and crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill to EUR 1,110/mt, as Ukrainian export delays limit harvest-period supply.

EU deforestation rules create compliance challenges for cocoa exporters

The EU deforestation regulation poses major compliance challenges for cocoa exporters and their tracking systems, though a second delay may bring relief.

Starch markets show mixed signals as industrial demand softens

September starch markets are mixed, with European potato starch facing oversupply while tapioca demand from Chinese manufacturers stays robust.

Cheese markets under pressure as European and US spot prices decline

EU and US cheese markets face pressure as buyers delay purchases and spot prices decline across Cheddar, Gouda, Mozzarella varieties.

Raw sugar futures break below 16 cents as Brazilian mills weigh ethanol shift

Raw sugar futures closed at 15.9 cents per pound on higher supply expectations and negative fund positioning, as Brazilian mills weigh a shift to ethanol.

US wholesale beef prices drop nearly $9 as demand weakens beyond seasonal norms

US choice cutout prices fell nearly $9 last week with spot trade pointing to another $10 drop, a decline running well beyond the usual seasonal pattern.

Rapeseed oil prices increase on Ukrainian export disruptions and strong rival oils

Rapeseed oil rose EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt as unclear Ukrainian export mechanisms and rival vegetable oil strength provide support.

US dairy markets fall through support levels as milk oversupply weighs on prices

CME butter fell through the $2/lb support level in a bearish week, as milk production up 3.45% year on year keeps expanding the pool and crushing prices.

Global dairy markets plunge as oversupply overwhelms demand across all categories

Global dairy markets plunge as unprecedented milk oversupply overwhelms demand. Analysis of butter crash, SMP weakness, and production cycle implications.

Rapeseed supply expands while sunflower markets tighten amid harvest delays

Ukrainian sunflower crop drops to 13.56 mmt while rapeseed forecasts rise 700k mt in Australia. Palm oil gains $20/mt on Malaysian supply concerns. Analysis.

Cocoa price discovery breaks down as structural problems persist

Cocoa markets struggle with broken price signals as Ghana's debt crisis deepens and Brazilian farmers face oligopolistic pricing pressure from processors.

Canadian canola exports to EU face certification bottleneck while trade tensions with China persist

Canadian canola exports to EU may be capped at 2-4 MMT due to biodiesel certification requirements, forcing exporters to redirect volumes.

European butter prices drop to €6,700/mt as supply surplus reaches 56,500mt

European butter has fallen to €6,700/mt as the supply surplus reaches 56,500 mt, with butter prices declining across all major regions and buyers in control.

Coffee futures hit $3.78 as roaster panic drives eight-day rally

Coffee futures rose 44.10 cents to $3.78/lb on the December contract, an eighth straight day of gains, as roaster buying increased by 17% on the week.

Ivory Coast cuts cocoa export forecast as severe drought threatens global supply

Ivory Coast has cut main crop export contracts by 100,000 tonnes to 1.2 million as severe drought and disease threaten the top producing nation's crop.

Starch procurement faces uncertainty as Trump tariffs reshape supply chains

Trump's 10% tariffs on major starch exporters create procurement challenges as food demand stays strong but industrial applications weaken.

USDA corn estimates surprise markets with massive production increase

USDA surprises corn markets with 16.7 billion bushel production forecast, pushing futures to new lows. Check out the latest corn prices.

Dairy fat prices correct lower as milk production increases globally

Global dairy fat prices face downward pressure from record milk production while whey protein markets enter tight Q4 purchasing window.

Cocoa: weak demand is priced in, supply problems not

Weak cocoa demand is fully priced in but supply disruption is not, an asymmetry that lets futures jump 10% in a session on West African weather reports.

Coffee futures rally 32 cents in one week amid Brazilian import tariffs

Coffee futures surge to 314.05 cents/lb as 50% US tariffs on Brazilian imports force roasters to restructure supply chains.

Corn oil prices rise $60-130/MT as Middle East tensions drive up energy and shipping Costs

Corn oil prices increase $60-130/MT from June levels, while global corn production reaches record 1.265 billion metric tons.

European cheese prices face summer pressure as trading activity slows

European cheese prices face summer pressure with cheddar at €4,430/mt, gouda at €4,050/mt, and mozzarella at €4,000/mt as trading activity slows.

Cocoa prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand destruction

Cocoa prices rise despite weak demand as West African production concerns outweigh processing declines | Market Analysis.

Why are U.S. butter prices declining while Europe and New Zealand’s remain high?

US butter prices have fallen sharply on oversupply while Europe and New Zealand hold at elevated levels, showing how far regional supply balances diverge.

Arabica coffee futures climb 17 cents as tariff concerns and weather risks support prices

Arabica coffee futures climb to 301.35 cents/lb as Brazilian tariff deadline approaches and weather models show potential frost risks.

Global cheese prices slip as summer demand weakens across Europe and US markets

Global cheese markets soften as European summer holidays reduce demand while production remains steady - cheddar, gouda, mozzarella, emmental

Vegetable oil markets show mixed signals as laurics reach historic highs

Latest vegetable oil market analysis reveals coconut oil reaching crisis levels at $2,700/mt while palm oil gains on reduced US tariffs.

US dairy markets stabilize as tariff extension removes immediate trade pressure

US dairy markets stabilize after tariff extension as heat wave impacts supply. Weekly analysis of CME trading, butter prices, and divergent export trends.

Sugar prices rally on strong export demand despite soft fundamentals

New York raw sugar futures reversed recent declines as Brazilian vessel line-ups surged and refining demand improved, despite fundamentals still soft.

How rising coconut oil prices are driving up ice cream costs this summer

Rising coconut oil prices have pushed the cost of ice cream and production to soaring levels. What's behind the increase?

Cocoa markets face double pressure from weather relief and tariff uncertainty

Cocoa futures fell 9.6% in London and 9.2% in New York as West African weather improved, while US trade tariff uncertainty kept the market volatile.

European sugar market faces perfect storm of heat, drought, and trade pressures

Heatwaves stress European sugar beet crops as water levels hit record lows. Expert analysis on weather risks, trade policy impacts, and market outlook.

US dairy markets rally across all products as July 4th legislation drives optimism

US dairy prices surge across all CME products as new congressional legislation boosts markets. Butter and cheese hit production records in May data.

Cocoa prices drop as Ghana boosts crop forecast, but weather risks loom large

New York cocoa falls to $9,000 as Ghana increases crop forecast 8.3%. Côte d'Ivoire arrivals up 5.7% but rainfall concerns persist in West Africa.

Coffee futures hit annual low as Brazil frost concerns fade

Coffee futures drop to 303.75 cents/lb as Brazil frost concerns dissipate. Expert analysis reveals market dynamics and trading opportunities ahead.

European cheese markets show mixed signals as Q2 ends

European cheese markets face inventory pressure as Q2 winds down. Mozzarella prices fall to €4,150/mt, cheddar drops 20%, while Emmental holds steady.

Oils sector calm for now: 3 key takeaways from Israel-Iran conflict so far

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after Trump announced China can continue buying Iranian oil. Analysis of Middle East tensions, vegetable oils volatility, biofuel m

Sugar prices under pressure as energy markets shift: What traders need to know

Sugar futures decline as oil prices drop and energy-ethanol dynamics shift. Get expert analysis on Brazil production and EU crop risks.

Cocoa market shows signs of recovery as West African rains improve crop prospects

Cocoa futures drop 15% as West African rains improve crop prospects. Analysis of supply recovery, smuggling challenges, and market outlook.

Cocoa markets find stability as weather shifts from drought to flood concerns

Cocoa futures find stability after volatile period, but excessive rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana raises new supply concerns.

US dairy markets retreat from recent highs as seasonal patterns emerge

Latest US dairy market update shows cheese prices pulling back from highs while trans-Atlantic protein spreads remain wide.

Global starch market outlook: June 2025 trade analysis shows price stability amid supply chain disruptions

Latest starch market intelligence reveals price stability across corn, potato, tapioca & wheat sectors despite trade disruptions.

Cocoa market enters "silly season" as weather uncertainty and policy volatility create perfect storm

Cocoa market enters volatile "silly season" with 20-year low liquidity, weather uncertainty in West Africa, and policy disruptions.

Sugar prices hit four-year low as global surplus outlook emerges

Sugar futures hit lowest levels since 2021 as global surplus emerges. Brazil production recovers while European markets face mixed signals.

Butter breaks $2.50/lb as US celebrates national dairy month amid mixed production signals

US butter climbed back above $2.50/lb on an absence of CME offers, even as April data showed output up 3.86% and protein powders moved the other way.

Cocoa markets remain volatile as ICCO widens global supply deficit to 494,000 tons

The ICCO widened its 2023/24 cocoa deficit estimate to 494,000 tons as mid-crop quality concerns persist in West Africa. Futures hit $10,974 before easing.

Global Vegetable Oil markets face tariff turbulence and weather uncertainty

Vegetable oil prices volatile as 50% EU tariffs flip daily while weather threatens crops. Palm, soy, rapeseed & sunflower oil analysis + AI forecasts.

Palm oil prices decline as Malaysian production growth slows in week 22

CPO futures decline while Malaysian palm oil exports surge 11.63%. Production growth limited to 0.73% in May as Indonesian shipments jump 33%.

Cocoa market volatility continues: July futures swing nearly 19% in historic trading week

July cocoa futures hit $10,898 after 19% rally, then crashed 10%. Analysis reveals 20-year low liquidity, 3.5% demand drop, and West African supply gamble.

Cocoa market watch: Rally faces headwinds despite supply concerns

US cocoa futures hit a three-month high of $10,974 before easing, as improving West African rainfall runs up against persistent crop quality concerns.

US dairy market weekly: Cheese prices surge amid trade deal developments

Discover how the new US-China trade agreement is driving a $0.12/lb cheese price rally and creating export opportunities for US dairy producers in our latest ma

Dairy market turbulence: Navigating uncertainty in global Butter, SMP, and WMP markets

New US import tariffs have triggered market-wide dairy disruption. Where butter, SMP and WMP prices now stand, and how far the regional gaps have opened.

US Cocoa tariffs shake global markets: supply squeeze meets trade tensions

New US tariffs of up to 21% on cocoa imports collide with a 40% drop in Ivory Coast production, sending futures tumbling from $9,492 to $7,800.

US dairy market update: FMD concerns, cheese prices fall amid production shifts

Latest US dairy market analysis shows declining cheese prices despite regional production growth, while FMD crosses borders in Europe.

Canola Market Faces Pressure: MATIF Rapeseed and ICE Canola Prices Tumble Amid China's Tariff Implementation

MATIF rapeseed and ICE canola prices tumble as China imposes 100% tariff on Canadian canola products. European markets brace for influx while Australia raises p

Inside the Cocoa market: preventing a drop in demand amidst volatility

Discover key cocoa market trends, from supply shifts in Ivory Coast to changing chocolate demand and price volatility. Get insights for 2025.

Global Sugar Market Update: Pressure on global prices persists

Pressure on global sugar prices, production declines in Brazil & Europe, and the outlook for 2025. Stay informed with Vesper.

4 Key Factors Driving Biodiesel Prices to New Highs

Discover the top 4 factors driving biodiesel prices to new highs, from increased demand and German regulations to supply disruptions.

Palm Oil and Palm Olein Prices in India Have Reached Their Peak – According to RKS Insights

India's import duties on edible oils aim to boost domestic production, with a 20% customs duty on crude oils like palm, and soybean.

Wild Price Swings and Uncertainty within Gouda and Butter markets

Dairy volatility is on full display, with butter and gouda swinging hard around the first of October as very high offers gave way to very low ones.

Record High Cream Prices Propel European Butter Market to New Heights: Price Forecast Indicates Further Increases

European cream prices have hit record highs, breaking through €10,000/mt and pushing butter prices to skyrocket again across the dairy sector.

European Cheese Market Sees Price Increases and Potential Tight Supply in Q4 2024 according to Price Forecasts

Discover the latest trends in the European cheese market as Gouda, Emmental, Mozzarella, and Cheddar Curd experience significant price hikes.

GDT Event Sees Significant Price Declines Across Dairy Products

The latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event saw substantial price drops across dairy products, including butter, SMP, and WMP, on stronger seasonal supply.

Valorisation of butter and SMP catches up with cheese in European market

Butter and SMP valorisation has caught up with cheese in Europe, as tight supplies, lower production and firm demand lift prices in the EU, US and New Zealand.

Global Sugar Market: Futures Slide as Supply Pressures Ease

Discover the latest trends in the raw sugar market, which saw a 4.6% decrease, now trading at 18.6 cents per pound, the lowest since November '22.

High Global Demand Tightens Butter Market, with Cream Prices Hitting Yearly High

Discover the European butter market's challenges: supply shortages, record-high cream prices, and rising global demand tightening the market.

Impact of O.N.I.L. volumes on global SMP market

Algeria's O.N.I.L has tendered for SMP and WMP delivery between June and September. How the volumes are landing on an already bearish global SMP market.

Waiting for the Sugar Market to be Bullish in 2024

Sugar prices fell further after the March/24 contract expired with a 1.3 million tonne physical delivery of Brazilian sugar, unusually large off-season.

Exploring the Latest Sugar Market Sentiment: Outlook and Trends

Explore the latest sugar market outlook: global prices show minimal fluctuation as Brazil's Center-South early harvest approaches.

Vegetable oils, except palm oil, have weakened since the last report, influenced by the Red Sea crisis and a bumper soybean supply.

Vegetable oils other than palm have weakened on the Red Sea crisis and bumper soybean supply, while heavy Malaysian rain cut January palm oil output.

Vegetable oil market update: Global palm oil and soybean oil prices up on bullish MPOB and neutral-slightly bullish WASDE report

Vegetable oil market update: Discover the impact of increased Brent Crude Oil prices and bullish MPOB and WASDE report on prices