July contract rallies after testing support
The most active contract shifted from May to July this week ahead of the first notice day. The July contract rose 3.85 cents from Monday to Monday, closing at $2.9635 per pound. The market tested a low of $2.79 per pound on Tuesday before rallying further, with the ceasefire news acting as the key catalyst.
Spread dynamics become the near-term focus
With the May contract entering its delivery period, the May–July front-month spread is now the primary market focus. A stable or weakening spread would be bearish for prices; a spread rally would provide support.
Outlook
The market is expected to trade in a narrower $2.90–$3.05 range in the near term. The immediate risk of a protracted Middle East conflict appears to be receding, though markets are likely to remain sensitive to further geopolitical developments.
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