Forecasts articles — Vesper Blog

How to Set Commodity Budget Rates for 2027 (Futures vs. Forecast)

How to set commodity budget rates for 2027: blend covered and open volume, choose futures or forecast, add a stress band. Worked SMP and butter example.

Commodity Price Risk Management for Food Manufacturers: The 2026 Playbook

Commodity price risk management for food manufacturers: real 2026 price swings, a 5-step framework, which ingredients you can hedge and a maturity model.

Forward Buying Strategy: What 3 Years of Butter, Cocoa and Sugar Prices Teach About Layered Cover

A forward buying strategy, backtested on 3 years of butter, cocoa and sugar prices. See what layered cover did to budget misses, plus a cover ladder to copy.

Why MPC isn't a clean swap for WPC80, but buyers are reaching for it anyway

As WPC80 hits historic highs, MPC is catching the spillover bid. See where the swap actually works, why prices are moving and what's next.

How highly accurate commodity forecasts are built - inside Vesper’s methodology

How Vesper builds commodity price forecasts: published accuracy across 4,000+ price series, the four input layers, and how to read a curve.

US NFDM prices surged 90% in five months. Here's what's next.

From $1.18/lb in early December 2025 to a record of $2.2625/lb on May 4, 2026. The rally pushed NFDM to its highest level in 12 years.

Filling a gap in US dairy: the Vesper US SMP price benchmark

This US SMP price benchmark fills a gap in public US dairy reporting. Compare US, EU, and Oceania SMP side by side, with forecasts on each.

How WPC80 protein forecasts work

What actually goes into a WPC80 protein forecast? Foundation models, fundamentals, technical indicators, and the data behind it.

Inside the CME spot call: from daily settlement price to a forward-looking price forecast

How CME spot call prices work, who in US dairy relies on them, and how Vesper visualizes the same data alongside a forecast.

Why procurement managers pair USDA prices with price forecasts

USDA prices anchor your contracts but lag the market by weeks. See how an AI price forecast on the same USDA series turns a backward-looking

What the CBOT price really tells you (and what It doesn’t)

The CBOT price is an auction, not a forecast. See what the settle really tells US buyers, what it doesn't, and what to pair it with.

Why futures prices are not forecasts (and what a real forecasts looks like)

A futures curve is not a forecast, even when they look alike on a screen. Here's the distinction that matters for CBOT and CME procurement.

WPC80 in 2026: why US buyers can't find product at any price

US WPC80 prices nearly doubled from $5.80/lb to over $10.50/lb in six months. GLP-1 demand, hard production limits and a global investment cycle behind it.

Major sports nutrition brands are telling consumers why whey prices are going up in 2026

WPC80 has gone from around €5,000 to nearly €20,000 a tonne in three years. Why XXL Nutrition and Upfront said so publicly, and what the price data shows.

Wheat types for industrial baking: Procurement manager's buying guide 2026

Wheat procurement best practices for industrial baking. Compare hard red, soft, durum & milling wheat prices, seasonal trends.

Why coconut oil prices increased by 33% in 2025: A complete month-by-month timeline

Discover why coconut oil prices surged 33% in 2025. Explore key drivers, monthly market events, and expert price outlooks.

How weather may shape bakery ingredient prices in 2026: key recommendations on when to buy

Discover how extreme weather in 2025 is affecting global supply chains and pricing for sugar, grains, oils, cocoa, and nuts.

Procurement in the sugar market: what makes it so different? – Insights from Head of Marketing & Global Supply Chain at Viterra

Martijn Noordhoek, Head of Marketing & Global Supply Chain at Viterra, shares key insights on how buyers can manage long-term sugar market risk.

Sugar markets in turmoil: Why 2025 is the most challenging year for procurement teams

Learn how procurement teams are adapting their buying strategies to navigate EU production cuts, weather extremes, and ethanol competition.

Fonterra’s approach to commodity risk, index pricing and the future of dairy

Discover how Richard Allen, President of Fonterra Global Ingredients, deals with price volatility in the global dairy market.

Egg market dynamics: Understanding price volatility and regional supply challenges

Industry expert Anders Wurcel from Ovodan analyzes current egg market trends, regional price differences, and future outlook.

The impact of rising cocoa powder prices on the European bakery industry

European bakery manufacturers face major challenges as cocoa powder prices climb more than 80%, forcing changes to formulations, procurement, and pricing.

Strong Source episode 23: forecasting the future with Goldman Sachs' Daan Struyven

Explore expert insights from Goldman Sachs’ Daan Struyven on gold prices, oil demand, and AI’s growing impact on global commodity markets.

Dairy Café Recap: Key 2025 Dairy Market Insights and Trends

Discover key 2025 dairy market insights, including trends, FMD impacts, New Zealand production. Stay ahead with actionable updates.

2024 Bakery Costs Unpacked: Butter Highs, Sugar Lows, and the Outlook for Ingredients

Explore 2024 bakery cost trends: soaring dairy, stable eggs, and falling sugar prices, plus insights into 2025 market expectations.

2024 Cheese Market Resilience Amid Dairy Volatility: Trends, Challenges, and 2025 Outlook

Explore the 2024 cheese market's resilience amid dairy volatility, production growth, supply challenges, and the outlook for 2025.

2024 Chocolate Market Turmoil: Cocoa Prices Surge Amid Supply Shortages and Dairy Volatility

Explore the 2024 chocolate market’s challenges with soaring cocoa prices, volatile dairy costs, sugar relief, and what 2025 holds for manufacturers.

2024 Fortified Foods Sector: Protein Ingredient Pressures, Market Growth, and Emerging Trends

Explore the 2024 fortified foods sector: protein ingredient pressures, market growth, and emerging trends in protein-enriched products.

2024 Infant Nutrition Market: Rising Ingredient Costs, Dairy Protein Pressure, and Oil Volatility

Discover the 2024 infant nutrition market: rising ingredient costs, dairy protein pressures, oil volatility, and 2025 challenges ahead.

2024 Oils and Fats Market Volatility: Price Fluctuations, Sourcing Challenges, and Sustainability Trends

Explore the 2024 oils and fats market with price surges, sourcing challenges, and sustainability trends shaping the industry for 2025.

2024 Sugar & Sweeteners Market Trends: Price Declines, Production Shifts, and Evolving Consumer Preferences

Discover the 2024 sugar and sweeteners market trends, with price drops, shifting consumer preferences, and what’s shaping the market in 2025.

Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis in Agri Commodities: How AI Can Improve Price Forecasting

Discover how AI-powered analysis combines technical and fundamental insights for more accurate price forecasting in agricultural commodities.

The EUDR Postponement is Official: Vesper Tackles Transparency Issues with a range of Forward Price Benchmarks For Crude Palm Oil (CIF Rotterdam)

Discover how Vesper is tackling palm oil price transparency amid the EUDR postponement, with new Forward Price benchmarks.

Announcing Our New Partnership with EMGE: Enhancing Packaging Commodity Intelligence on Vesper

Vesper partners with EMGE to deliver expert Paper, Packaging, and Tissue market insights, enhancing decision-making for users in the packaging commodity sector.

Weekly Weather and Crop Forecasting Analysis Available on Vesper Through New Partnership with EarthDaily Agro

Explore weekly weather and crop forecasts on Vesper with satellite data powered by our new partnership with EarthDaily Agro.

Vesper Leads with the First EUDR-Compliant Forward Pricing Benchmarks for Palm Oil 2025

Discover Vesper’s industry-first EUDR-Compliant Forward Pricing Benchmarks for Palm Oil 2025, updated daily for market participants.

New partnership announcement: OIL WORLD’s weekly market analysis now available on Vesper

Read more about the strategic partnership between Vesper and OIL WORLD, the global leader in market analyses since 1958.

Top 7 Insights into US Dairy Market Trends: Prices, Production, and Forecast for 2024

In the global agriculture market, the US dairy market stands out as a global powerhouse, both in terms of production and consumption.

El Niño unlikely to have a significant negative impact on the total global vegetable oil production

Explore the impact of El Niño and other weather patterns on soybean, palm oil, rapeseed, sunflower, and olive oil production.

5 Key Data Points Shaping Palm Oil Market in Indonesia and Malaysia

Discover 2024 predictions for the palm oil market in Indonesia and Malaysia, focusing on sustainability, production, and exports.

Exploring the impact of farming practices on the global dairy market - 10 questions with Philipp Goetz, Head of Sales and Business Development at IFCN

Dive into the impact of farming practices on the global dairy market in our in-depth interview with Philipp Goetz of IFCN.