The Russian invasion in Ukraine has tightened most vegetable oil markets even further than they were due to the lower production this and last season. For those that are in need of product, security of supply has become an issue. Which is seen in the feeling of panic that currently exists within most commodity markets.
The increasing prices and the lower availability of most vegetable oils is causing countries to start protecting their local economy by imposing export restrictions or increasing export prices. Indonesia has already done so for palm oil in January, with many more countries that followed with new export regulations for grains and/or vegetable oils. But these high price levels create room for profit taking, which we also see happening at the moment.
Finally, there has been some positive news as talks between Ukraine and Russia have progressed. Combining this with other bearish news such as the release of governmental stocks in China and the lowered crude oil price, we are currently seeing a price correction. But in these uncertain times, only time will tell if this is looking to stay.
