French wheat flour rose 17% since May while milling wheat rose 7%: how to check a wheat-linked price increase

When a flour supplier raises prices, the letter usually says “due to higher wheat costs”. This year that explanation only covers part of the increase.

Since early May, wheat flour prices in France have risen 16.8%. Over the same period, milling wheat futures on Euronext rose 6.9%. This post explains why flour can rise faster than the grain it’s made from, how to split a wheat-linked increase into its parts, and how to check each part against a benchmark.

It’s written for buyers at bakeries, pasta and snack makers, and anyone who buys flour, semolina or wheat-based ingredients.

How much have wheat and flour prices moved?

Here’s how the grain, the flour and the main energy costs have moved since early May and over the past year.

Latest prints October 22 to November 2, 2026. Sources: Vesper calculation (flour), Euronext, Ismea Mercati (durum), PPAC (gas), Nord Pool (power).

On the futures, that’s a move from €213.50 per metric ton on May 4, 2026 to €228.25 on November 2, 2026. Over a full year, the grain actually rose a little more than the flour. The gap opened up from spring onward.

Why flour can rise faster than wheat

A metric ton of flour isn’t a metric ton of wheat. To make flour, a mill cleans the grain, grinds it, and separates the white flour from the bran and germ. So the price of flour is the grain plus everything it takes to turn grain into flour, plus the mill’s margin.

That conversion step is where this year’s gap came from. Grinding runs mostly on electricity, while heating, drying and transport use gas and fuel, and the mill’s other costs include labor and packaging. When those costs rise, flour can rise even if wheat stands still.

This spring, European energy costs jumped. French industrial natural gas rose by about 70% between March and May 2026, and it’s now 89.6% higher than a year ago. German spot electricity prices rose 48.5% between May and September. That doesn’t prove energy explains the whole difference between flour and wheat, but it’s the first line on a supplier’s breakdown to ask about.

Timing adds a second effect. Mills usually buy wheat weeks or months ahead. A mill that bought its wheat before the spring rally is passing on a lower grain cost than today’s futures price, and a mill that bought at the August high is passing on a higher one. Their flour prices can differ even when both are fair.

The three parts of a wheat-linked increase

Every wheat-linked price increase can be split into three parts. Each one has a different benchmark.

In Vesper’s European bread cost model template, wheat flour makes up 60% of the recipe. So for a bakery, a mistake in the flour line affects most of the bill of materials, and it’s worth getting the split right.

A worked example

Here’s how that works for a flour supplier asking for a 10% increase. The cost shares below are made up for illustration. The price changes are the real moves since early May.

Cost shares are illustrative. Price changes: Euronext milling wheat (grain) and French industrial gas, PPAC (energy), May 4 to November 2, 2026.

The energy benchmark matters as much as the share. If your supplier’s energy is mostly electricity, use a power price instead: German spot power rose 48.5% between May and September, which would make the energy line about 4.9 points and the total about 9.7%. Ask which one your supplier actually pays.

Using the gas figure, the grain and energy moves justify about 5.7%. The supplier is asking for 10%, so there are about 4.3 points to explain. They might come from higher wages, a different energy contract, or wheat bought at a worse moment. Each of those is a fair answer if the supplier can show it. “Wheat went up” on its own isn’t.

Beyond bread: durum wheat and pasta

The same check works for pasta and semolina. Italian durum wheat prices are up 6.0% since late May, which is much closer to the grain move than the flour figure. If a pasta or semolina supplier is asking for a double-digit increase, the grain alone doesn’t explain it, and the conversion and timing lines need the same questions.

What happens next

The Vesper milling wheat forecast for Europe points to a gradual decline between the end of November and early May 2027, and our France FOB Rouen forecast shows a milder easing over the same months. The Euronext curve itself is fairly flat, with contracts from December 2026 to September 2027 settling between €221.50 and €228.25 per metric ton on November 2, 2026.

If the grain component is expected to soften, a supplier asking for more in 2027 needs to show which other cost line is still rising.

Putting it to work: checking your next flour increase

Step 1: ask for the cost split

Ask your supplier what share of their price is grain, energy and other conversion costs. If they won’t share it, use a reasonable estimate and say so.

Step 2: find the benchmark for each part

Use Euronext milling wheat for the grain, a gas or power price for energy, and wage data for labor. For durum products, use a durum price benchmark instead.

Step 3: match the dates

Compare the same period for every part, and ask which months your supplier’s wheat was bought in. A move measured from the spring low looks very different from one measured from the August high.

Step 4: calculate the justified increase

Multiply each part’s share by its price change and add them up, as in the worked example.

Step 5: compare and ask about the gap

If the request is higher than your number, ask the supplier to explain the difference line by line.

Step 6: agree how prices will move back down

If wheat eases as forecast, the same method should bring your price down. An index-linked clause makes that automatic.

For a full method, including a pushback email, see how to respond to a supplier price increase. Vesper puts grain, energy and ingredient prices in one place, with forecasts, so you can run this check for any supplier.