Chocolate

Cocoa stuck between El Niño risk and a squeezed consumer

London cocoa futures moved just 0.1% on the week. El Niño threatens West African supply, while Lindt cut its 2026 sales outlook for a second time.

Lindt plans cheaper Christmas chocolate before Q3 grindings

Lindt plans lower prices for Christmas chocolate and again from January, while cocoa futures rose 5.7% in London ahead of Q3 grindings data next week.

Ghana's cocoa farmgate price opens well above Ivory Coast's

Ghana raised its cocoa farmgate price 2.4%, leaving it well above Ivory Coast's despite a pledge to align. Smuggling and financing now shape the new season.

Ivory Coast farmers hold back beans over an unchanged farmgate price

ICE Europe cocoa fell 7% to close below 4,000 GBP/t while Ivory Coast farmers keep protesting a main crop farmgate price held at March's mid-crop level.

Ghana's state exporter guides cocoa output down by up to 38%

Ghana's state exporter now guides 2026/27 output to 470,000-620,000 tonnes against 760,000 a year earlier, while forecasters still split on deficit or surplus.

Cocoa drops 12% in a week short on fundamental news

ICE Europe fell 12% and ICE US 11% on little fresh input, while Ghana's proposed farmgate price sits around 75% above the Ivorian level for the new season.

Directionless cocoa market awaits fresh pod counts for the new season

Cocoa futures are swinging within a tight range as traders wait for new pod counts and EUDR compliance risk builds for Ivory Coast's new season.

Unsold cocoa stock in Ivory Coast keeps a lid on prices

ICE cocoa futures fell 7-8.5% this week as high Ivory Coast arrivals and an uncertain unsold-stock overhang weigh on price.

Why cocoa futures are swinging 5% a day

Realized volatility in cocoa futures has topped 90%, with 5-6% daily swings now routine, as thin liquidity and a shrinking 2026/27 surplus keep traders on edge.

Why cocoa can jump 20% in two weeks and drop 7% in a day

Cocoa futures swung from a 19.6% weekly gain to a 7% one-day drop. Martijn Bron unpacks the volatility, the crop worries behind it, and what buyers face.

Cocoa rallies more than 30%; deficit fears return for next season

Cocoa has rallied more than 30% off its lows as the market turns to next season's West African crop, with New York on track for its best month since late 2024.

Cocoa jumps 11% as the market turns to El Niño supply risk

Cocoa snapped higher with ICE London July futures up 11% to £3,488/t and New York up 11% to $4,545/t, as the market turned to 2026/27 supply risk.

Cocoa futures rebound on macro mood, not fundamentals

Cocoa had been one of the quieter markets of late spring, shrugging off higher Ivory Coast arrivals and El Niño chatter alike. Then London opened sharply up.

Ivory Coast arrivals outpace last season, pressuring cocoa

Cocoa fell on supportive West African weather and a jump in Ivory Coast arrivals, with ICE EU down 6% to 2,940 GBP/t and ICE US down 6% to 3,831 USD/t.

Cocoa rally fades as weak demand meets a bigger Ivorian crop

Cocoa opened last week with a strong rally then gave it back over consecutive down days, a pattern Martijn Bron puts down to silly season volatility.

EU cocoa futures post a 10% single-session gain as the Silly Season takes hold

EU cocoa rose 7% on the week to 3,153 GBP/t for front-month July 2026, while the September contract gained 8% and at one point rallied over 10% in a session.

El Nino shifts Cocoa Week London from bearish demand to cautious supply concern

Delegates arrived at Cocoa Week London focused on weak confectionery demand and left worried about supply instead. El Niño was the catalyst for the shift.

Cocoa rallies 30% in a week on short-covering and crop risk

EU cocoa front-month May 2026 futures closed up 34% on the week at 3,551 GBP/t, with gains spread across the curve rather than concentrated in the front.

Cocoa futures climb on El Niño concerns despite record surplus outlook

London July cocoa futures rose about 10% in two weeks on FMCG buying tied to El Niño, despite a forecast record 2025/26 surplus of 550,000-600,000 tonnes.

Cocoa prices find a higher floor on supply risk concerns

Cocoa has moved higher with the front-month May 2026 ICE Europe contract closing 3.7% up at GBP 2,495/t, as focus shifts from demand destruction to supply.

European cocoa grindings drop to decade low on weak chocolate demand

European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year on year in Q1 2026 to 325,895 mt, the lowest quarterly total in more than a decade, on weak chocolate demand.

Cocoa prices break 2,500 resistance despite record fund short position

Cocoa broke above 2,500 resistance on fund short covering ahead of global grindings data, with the US-Iran ceasefire lending broad commodity support.

Cocoa grindings extend decline with chocolate demand under sustained pressure

Cocoa grindings look set to stay well below historical levels through 2025/26, with European volumes down 8.3% in Q4 and pressure across the chocolate trade.

Cocoa prices stage end-of-quarter rally, but cost pressures cloud the chocolate outlook

Cocoa rallied at the end of March, EU futures gaining 7% in a session to £2,487/mt, though the move points to short-covering rather than changed fundamentals.

European butter prices correct sharply while SMP holds firm

European butter fell from close to EUR 5,000/mt to as low as EUR 4,200/mt in days, after fresh and older volumes came to market at the EUR 5,000 level.

Ivory Coast weighs cocoa pricing reform after beans pile up at ports

Ivory Coast is weighing a reform that would make government-set farmer prices more responsive to international levels, according to sources cited by Reuters.

Cocoa farmers in Brazil cancel expansion plans as low prices bite

Brazilian cocoa farmers expect to cancel around 50% of planned industrial cultivation projects, as prices below $3,000/t make new investment unviable.

Bakery market forecast 2026: flour, starches, eggs, dairy, vegetable oils, sugar, cocoa, nuts

Bakery procurement in H2 2026 faces mixed signals: some ingredients are softening, others under renewed pressure, and a handful in genuinely tight supply.

Chocolate forecast 2026: cocoa, sugar, vegetable oils, nuts

Chocolate manufacturers face an ingredient picture very different from the start of the year: cocoa has fallen sharply while other input costs have risen.

Sports Nutrition ingredients forecast 2026: whey protein powders, eggs, sugar, nuts, cooa

The sports nutrition supply chain is under its heaviest pressure in years, as whey demand broadens into medical, weight management and food fortification.

Cocoa sector turmoil deepens in Ivory Coast and Ghana

Disruption in the Ivory Coast and Ghana cocoa sectors is deepening, with unsold beans, delayed payments and falling farmgate prices destabilising the market.

Ivory Coast brings forward mid-crop season in bid to clear unsold cocoa stocks

Ivory Coast has reclassified March cocoa as mid-crop rather than main crop, sharply cutting farmgate prices in a bid to move unsold stocks into the market.

How Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact food commodity market

Middle East tensions and restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude higher. How that could reach food commodity markets.

Dairy markets firm on scarce offers and strong export demand

A shortage of offers is lifting butter and SMP prices across Europe, the US and Oceania, as sellers export aggressively or hold back rather than quote.

Cocoa prices fall 35% in a month as West African supply overhang deepens

Cocoa has fallen about 35% in a month and sits 70% below year-ago levels, with ICE EU March 2026 at £2,438/t as unsold beans build in Ghana and Ivory Coast.

Cocoa futures recover modestly as Ghana payment crisis leaves 150,000 mt stuck

Cocoa futures recovered slightly after sharp declines, but a payment crisis in Ghana and Ivory Coast has left farmers unpaid and 150,000 mt of beans stuck.

Cocoa futures decline 30% in one month as speculators exit and grind data disappoints

Cocoa futures fell 30% in a month as Q4 grind data showed an 8.25% European decline and Ivory Coast faced trader defaults on sharply lower prices.

Cocoa prices hit 2-year low as farmgate pricing crisis leaves African beans stranded at ports

London cocoa fell over 12% to 3,347 GBP/t, a two-year low, as fixed farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana created a West African supply bottleneck.

Cocoa market seeks equilibrium after 50% price retreat

Cocoa futures trade in a narrow range as the market seeks equilibrium after a 50% retracement, with mild Harmattan and good rainfall supporting West Africa.

Record cocoa short position reaches half a million metric tons

Managed money now holds a half million tonne short position in cocoa futures, a size that has never failed to hurt speculators, says analyst Martijn Bron.

EU chocolate inflation remains at multi-year highs despite cocoa price correction

European chocolate inflation stayed near multi-year highs at 17.3% year on year even as cocoa fell 60% from its peak, limiting any recovery in demand.

Chocolate demand pressures mount with Singles Day spending decline

Cocoa fell more than 9% this week to around 4,202 GBP/t, as Singles Day spending dropped 20% and Barry Callebaut reported a 5.3% fall in chocolate volumes.

EU proposes six-month grace period for cocoa deforestation law

The EU will propose six months of leeway on its deforestation law rather than the longer delay announced in September, with simpler smallholder requirements.

Chocolate makers adjust recipes as cocoa costs remain elevated

High cocoa prices are driving recipe changes across the industry, with rice, oats and sunflower seeds replacing cocoa and some bars losing the chocolate label.

Chocolate manufacturers plan price cuts after consumers reject 30% increases

Mondelez reports higher-than-expected chocolate demand elasticity in Europe, with consumers pushing back after cumulative 30% price increases. What follows.

Chocolate demand proves more price-sensitive than expected as Mondelez reports consumer pushback

Mondelez puts European chocolate demand elasticity at 0.7-0.8, well above the 0.4-0.5 the industry expected, as cumulative 30% price rises test consumers.

Cocoa demand destruction confirmed as Q3 grind numbers reveal global decline

Q3 cocoa grind figures confirm demand destruction, with European grind down 4.8% to 337,353 mt and Asia down 17% as high prices hit chocolate consumption.

Cocoa prices fall 20% over past month as main crop expectations remain optimistic

Cocoa futures fall 20% in a month as West African main crop expectations remain optimistic. European Q3 grindings beat estimates.

How the EUDR delay is influencing cocoa prices and market structure

Discover how the EUDR delay, market structure shifts, and hedge fund shorts are influencing cocoa prices and procurement strategies.

EU deforestation rules create compliance challenges for cocoa exporters

The EU deforestation regulation poses major compliance challenges for cocoa exporters and their tracking systems, though a second delay may bring relief.

Cocoa price discovery breaks down as structural problems persist

Cocoa markets struggle with broken price signals as Ghana's debt crisis deepens and Brazilian farmers face oligopolistic pricing pressure from processors.

Côte d'Ivoire cocoa crop faces weather challenges as rain distribution remains uneven

West African cocoa regions are seeing mixed rainfall ahead of harvest, with uneven distribution across Côte d'Ivoire and different conditions recorded in Ghana.

Ivory Coast cuts cocoa export forecast as severe drought threatens global supply

Ivory Coast has cut main crop export contracts by 100,000 tonnes to 1.2 million as severe drought and disease threaten the top producing nation's crop.

Cocoa: weak demand is priced in, supply problems not

Weak cocoa demand is fully priced in but supply disruption is not, an asymmetry that lets futures jump 10% in a session on West African weather reports.

Cocoa prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand destruction

Cocoa prices rise despite weak demand as West African production concerns outweigh processing declines | Market Analysis.

Cocoa markets face double pressure from weather relief and tariff uncertainty

Cocoa futures fell 9.6% in London and 9.2% in New York as West African weather improved, while US trade tariff uncertainty kept the market volatile.

Second half of 2025 opens with dairy market weakness as seasonal pressures mount

H2 2025 dairy market analysis shows widespread weakness despite mixed fundamentals. GDT auction results, butter-cream disconnect, and seasonal pressures.

Cocoa prices drop as Ghana boosts crop forecast, but weather risks loom large

New York cocoa falls to $9,000 as Ghana increases crop forecast 8.3%. Côte d'Ivoire arrivals up 5.7% but rainfall concerns persist in West Africa.

Cocoa market shows signs of recovery as West African rains improve crop prospects

Cocoa futures drop 15% as West African rains improve crop prospects. Analysis of supply recovery, smuggling challenges, and market outlook.

Cocoa markets find stability as weather shifts from drought to flood concerns

Cocoa futures find stability after volatile period, but excessive rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana raises new supply concerns.

Dairy markets face pricing pressures as butter strength contrasts with powder weakness

European butter holds firm despite cream price volatility while milk powders show seasonal weakness, leaving wide spreads between buyers and sellers.

Cocoa market enters "silly season" as weather uncertainty and policy volatility create perfect storm

Cocoa market enters volatile "silly season" with 20-year low liquidity, weather uncertainty in West Africa, and policy disruptions.

Cocoa markets remain volatile as ICCO widens global supply deficit to 494,000 tons

The ICCO widened its 2023/24 cocoa deficit estimate to 494,000 tons as mid-crop quality concerns persist in West Africa. Futures hit $10,974 before easing.

Dairy markets surge as peak milk season ends, butter prices trigger buyer anxiety

Dairy markets rally as Northern Hemisphere exits peak milk production. Butter hits €7,500/mt amid supply fears. Raw milk, cream prices jump.

Cocoa market volatility continues: July futures swing nearly 19% in historic trading week

July cocoa futures hit $10,898 after 19% rally, then crashed 10%. Analysis reveals 20-year low liquidity, 3.5% demand drop, and West African supply gamble.

Cocoa market watch: Rally faces headwinds despite supply concerns

US cocoa futures hit a three-month high of $10,974 before easing, as improving West African rainfall runs up against persistent crop quality concerns.

US Cocoa tariffs shake global markets: supply squeeze meets trade tensions

New US tariffs of up to 21% on cocoa imports collide with a 40% drop in Ivory Coast production, sending futures tumbling from $9,492 to $7,800.

Inside the Cocoa market: preventing a drop in demand amidst volatility

Discover key cocoa market trends, from supply shifts in Ivory Coast to changing chocolate demand and price volatility. Get insights for 2025.

Impact of O.N.I.L. volumes on global SMP market

Algeria's O.N.I.L has tendered for SMP and WMP delivery between June and September. How the volumes are landing on an already bearish global SMP market.