Iran news — Vesper

Bullish signals stack up across the vegetable oil complex

Brent, palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all firming as energy, tariffs and Black Sea disruption stack bullish drivers across the complex.

Why the commodity outlook now hinges on Hormuz and the AI cycle

The second-half commodity outlook hinges on whether the Middle East conflict resolves and the AI investment boom holds, keeping a higher price floor.

Coriander leads a spice rally on thin arrivals and Hormuz optimism

Coriander rose about 9% on thin Baran arrivals, leading a broad Indian spice rally as US-Iran talks lifted hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to trade.

Physical scarcity drives basmati's sharpest rally of the season

Basmati rice rallied $8 to $10 per quintal, its sharpest move of the season, as old-paddy scarcity across India's mills outweighed US-Iran and Hormuz news.

Vegetable oils hold steady while Brent slips and Europe overheats

Vegetable oils held firm even as Brent slipped to $73. Palm oil rose on strong Malaysian exports, while a heatwave trimmed the EU rapeseed crop outlook.

Palm oil holds firm while Brent slides on US-Iran thaw

Palm oil prices climbed last week even as crude oil kept falling, a sign the market is now taking its lead from biofuel policy and weather risk rather than...

Cocoa futures rebound on macro mood, not fundamentals

Cocoa had been one of the quieter commodity markets of late spring. Futures barely moved over the prior fortnight, shrugging off both bearish news in the...

New Sathi crop bends old basmati prices, but the floor holds

The arrival of new Sathi paddy reset India's basmati rice market in early June. May had ended with exporters finding confidence and mills refusing to offer...

Thai rice up 25%, wheat swings 40 EUR in a month: grains reprice across the board

Thai rice prices rose between 16 and 25 percent in May, with parboiled rice A1 leading the move from 220.73 to 275.61 USD/mt. But the month was not only a...

Vegetable oils hold firm on crude rebound and biofuel demand

Vegetable oil markets steadied this week, caught between a rebound in Brent crude and a long list of conflicting signals. Brent's August contract fell to a...

Indonesia's export overhaul casts shadow over palm oil as Iran peace talks weigh on energy prices

The Indonesian government announced a new export centralization policy for key commodities, including palm oil, effective June 1st, a measure aimed at...

Basmati paddy is gone at Indian trading centres; mills are paying up for what remains

India's basmati paddy supply has effectively run out at every major northern trading centre. Arrivals at Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and...

Germany's RED III adoption and higher energy prices lift European biodiesel sharply

European biodiesel markets moved substantially higher in May. FAME 0 rose from $1,382 to $1,500 per tonne compared to the same period last month. UCOME...

Ocean freight rates jump on early peak season while Hormuz stays shut for most

Container spot rates from Shanghai to Northern Europe rose 11% this week. Rates to the Mediterranean were up 20%. The move is driven by carriers pushing new ...

Vegetable oils track Brent higher as El Nino and Hormuz tensions set the agenda

Brent crude rose from $104 to $112 per barrel over the week, and vegetable oil markets moved with it. The trigger was fresh US threats to resume attacks on...

India's spice markets have a supply story, but buyers aren't listening yet

Six Indian spice categories. Six versions of the same situation: supply is genuinely tight, but the buyers have gone quiet. Cumin arrivals at Unjha fell...

Food and beverage costs face a second wave of commodity pressure

The oil market has held above $100 per barrel through May, but the bigger story for food and beverage buyers is what is happening next. Investment funds...

Vegetable oils ease with Brent on stalled Iran-US talks

Brent crude (July) closed the week at $104/barrel, down from $114 the prior week and recovered from a $100 low reached on signs of progress in Iran-US peace ...

US broiler supply keeps climbing while breast meat demand cools

US chick placements totaled more than 1.18 billion over the six weeks ending May 2nd, a 2.8% increase from the same period a year earlier, according to LEAP ...

Indian spice markets caught between tight supply and stalled export demand

Indian spice markets are showing a consistent pattern across the complex this fortnight. Supply is tight, sometimes severely so, but demand-side pressures...

Gulf shipping disruption reshapes Indian spice export flows

The ongoing conflict in West Asia and the resulting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping export flows across multiple Indian spice categories,...

Coffee futures slip to USD 2.88/lb on improved roaster coverage

Coffee futures fell 8.5 cents over the past week to close at USD 2.878/lb on the most active July contract, with the market trading below the USD 2.90 to...

Indian basmati prices climb on tight supply and Gulf shipping uncertainty

Indian basmati prices have moved higher over the past three weeks, with 1509 Steam rising to USD 90 to USD 91/quintal from USD 82 to USD 83/quintal at the...

Energy shock threatens to lift EU food inflation to 5 to 10% by 2027

The European food industry is heading into a renewed inflationary period, with the energy price shock from the recent Iran conflict likely to pass through...

Southeast Asia biodiesel mandates reshape palm oil supply outlook

Three major Southeast Asian palm oil producers are stepping up biodiesel blending mandates in moves that will reshape the feedstock picture for global...

Cocoa prices break 2,500 resistance despite record fund short position

Short covering ahead of grindings data The rally appears linked to short covering by funds ahead of major global grinding updates, potentially on...

Australian sheep meat exports decline sharply in March as MENA shipments contract

Australian sheep meat exports pulled back materially in March 2026, with total combined lamb and mutton shipments reaching 42,656 tonnes, down 24% year on...

Coffee prices break below $2.90/lb support on Middle East uncertainty

Coffee futures ended the week at 286 US cents per pound, down 12.35 cents from the prior Tuesday, as a deteriorating risk environment weighed on prices....

Vegetable oil prices ease on ceasefire news, palm oil outlook mixed

A two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, announced on April 8, triggered a sharp decline in Brent crude oil, sending immediate...

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Grain prices across wheat, corn, barley, and soybeans remained elevated this week, with Brent crude oil continuing to provide the primary source of support. ...

Vegetable oils rebound on crude surge and biofuel policy shifts

Vegetable oil prices recovered broadly last week, with palm and soybean oil leading gains on the back of firmer Brent crude and new biofuel policy...

Wheat futures rally, but cash markets tell a different story

Wheat futures rally but basis levels signal a possible correction. Barley exports hit multi-year highs on strong global demand...

Coffee futures pull back on record Brazil crop expectations

Coffee futures basis the most active May contract fell 4.05 cents week-on-week, closing at 292.85 US cents/lb, after briefly reaching a high of 297.45 cents ...

US broiler market: weak export start, steady domestic demand

US broiler exports got off to a slow start in 2026, while domestic dark meat markets have continued to show relative stability. Here is what is shaping the...

Tomato paste market forecast 2026: Q2 expected stable, but California and energy risks loom for H2

The second quarter of 2026 is expected to see a modest softening in tomato paste prices relative to the firm levels observed at the start of the year. The...

Coffee approaches $3/lb as geopolitical risks support market

Coffee futures rally toward $3 per pound as geopolitical risks and potential shipping disruptions tighten supply and strengthen Brazilian...

Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

Explore three Brent oil price scenarios ($80, $120, and $150) and their potential impact on global commodity markets.

How the Middle East conflict is moving commodity markets

As the Middle East conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude tops $105, find out how it's moving prices across commodity markets.

Coffee futures slip below $3/lb as supply improves, Middle East conflict adds volatility

Arabica coffee futures fell to $2.83/lb as certified stock availability improved and roasters held back purchases. The Middle East conflict...

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

Grain markets moved higher over the past two weeks, with the Middle East conflict the most significant driver. Wheat, corn, barley, and...

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Sugar prices touched multi-year lows in mid-February before a partial recovery linked to crude oil gains. The 2025/26 surplus remains...

How escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping oil shipping

Escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global oil shipping, insurance markets, and freight flows as tanker traffic collapses.

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Brent crude's rise following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is lifting vegetable oil prices across the board, with freight...

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

US-Iran tensions push Brent crude higher, lifting vegetable oil prices

Rising geopolitical risk lifts vegetable oil prices in week 9 Meta description: Brent crude oil prices climbed on US-Iran tension concerns...

U.S. Treasury's 45Z guidance tilts biofuel policy toward North American crop oils

New 45Z biofuel guidance requires fuels to use exclusively U.S., Canada, and Mexico feedstocks, removing ILUC penalties and supporting CBOT...

Container shipping rates drop ahead of Chinese New Year as demand falls short

Spot rates dropped double-digits on Asia-Europe and Asia-America routes in late January as Chinese New Year demand surge failed...

Corn oil prices rise $60-130/MT as Middle East tensions drive up energy and shipping Costs

Corn oil prices increase $60-130/MT from June levels, while global corn production reaches record 1.265 billion metric tons.

Vegetable oil markets rally as US biodiesel regulations and tariff threats reshape global trade

Palm oil and soybean oil rally as US limits biodiesel credits to North American feedstocks. Tariffs threaten global trade flows.

Biodiesel markets show mixed signals as geopolitical tensions support LSGO prices

FAME0 and UCOME rise on higher LSGO prices while RME drops on harvest pressure. HVO demand could quadruple in Germany.

Vegetable oil markets face pressure as Brent crude weakens and supply forecasts rise

Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed markets decline as Brent crude drops to $67.61/barrel. Get expert analysis on supply forecasts.

Biodiesel prices rebound after sharp decline on Middle East ceasefire

Biodiesel markets recover from ceasefire-driven selloff as European regulations reshape HVO and UCO demand.

Oils sector calm for now: 3 key takeaways from Israel-Iran conflict so far

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after Trump announced China can continue buying Iranian oil. Analysis of Middle East tensions, vegetable oils volatility, biofuel m

Vegetable oils market declines as Middle East tensions cool

Palm oil, soy oil, and rapeseed prices fall as crude oil drops $5/barrel amid Israel-Iran ceasefire. Get Vesper's Week 26 market analysis.

Biodiesel prices strengthen on geopolitical tensions and EPA mandate boost

Biodiesel markets strengthen as Iran conflict drives energy costs higher and EPA proposes 5.61B gallon biofuel targets.

Vegetable oil prices surge as geopolitical tensions and biofuel mandates drive market volatility

Vegetable oil markets surge as Brent crude hits $73.23/barrel amid Israel-Iran conflict and EPA proposes higher biofuel targets.

Biodiesel prices surge as ISCC certificate suspension rocks European market

Biodiesel prices surge as ISCC certificate suspension hits major European producer.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Biodiesel markets face mixed pressures as feedstock dynamics shift in late May 2025

Biodiesel prices show mixed trends as UCO imports surge 17% and RME strengthens on rapeseed concerns.

How Middle East Tensions Are Shaping the Biodiesel and Feedstock Markets

Explore the latest trends in the EU biodiesel and feedstock markets, influenced by fluctuations in LSGO prices amid Middle East tensions.

Palm Oil Hits Yearly High Amid Surging Brent Crude Prices

Palm oil prices hit a yearly high as Brent crude oil surges by 12.1%, driven by Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.

Biodiesel market update: Growing interest to buy, yet making consensus on pricing remains a challenge

Biodiesel market update: Explore the impact of higher LSGO prices and buying demand on the biodiesel complex

Iran