Iran news — Vesper

Record Brazilian shipments leave coffee near flat on the week

Brazil shipped a seasonal record of Arabica and Robusta in August, yet December coffee fell only 0.8 cents on the week. Outside markets explain the gap.

Europe enters winter with gas storage 16 points below normal

European gas storage sits at 68% against an 84% seasonal average, TTF is at three-year highs and the ECB has hiked again. What that means into winter.

Turmeric's third rally in a row ends the same way

Turmeric rallied and gave it back for the third fortnight running, even with carryover stock down to 5 lakh bags against 140 lakh bags of annual demand.

Bullish signals stack up across the vegetable oil complex

Brent, palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all firming as energy, tariffs and Black Sea disruption stack bullish drivers across the complex.

Why the commodity outlook now hinges on Hormuz and the AI cycle

The second-half commodity outlook hinges on whether the Middle East conflict resolves and the AI investment boom holds, keeping a higher price floor.

Coriander leads a spice rally on thin arrivals and Hormuz optimism

Coriander rose about 9% on thin Baran arrivals, leading a broad Indian spice rally as US-Iran talks lifted hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to trade.

Physical scarcity drives basmati's sharpest rally of the season

Basmati rice rallied $8 to $10 per quintal, its sharpest move of the season, as old-paddy scarcity across India's mills outweighed US-Iran and Hormuz news.

Vegetable oils hold steady while Brent slips and Europe overheats

Vegetable oils held firm even as Brent slipped to $73. Palm oil rose on strong Malaysian exports, while a heatwave trimmed the EU rapeseed crop outlook.

Palm oil holds firm while Brent slides on US-Iran thaw

BMD crude palm oil rebounded to $1,110/mt from $1,089/mt even as Brent slipped to $77.9 a barrel, with biofuel policy and weather now leading the market.

Cocoa futures rebound on macro mood, not fundamentals

Cocoa had been one of the quieter markets of late spring, shrugging off higher Ivory Coast arrivals and El Niño chatter alike. Then London opened sharply up.

New Sathi crop bends old basmati prices, but the floor holds

New Sathi paddy reaching mandis in western Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand reset India's basmati market in early June, forcing old rice to reprice lower.

Thai rice up 25%, wheat swings 40 EUR in a month: grains reprice across the board

Thai rice rose 16 to 25% in May, parboiled A1 leading from 220.73 to 275.61 USD/mt, while EU milling wheat fell to 180 EUR/mt then jumped 36 EUR the next day.

Vegetable oils hold firm on crude rebound and biofuel demand

Vegetable oils steadied as Brent's August contract fell to $91 a barrel on May 29 then recovered to around $95 on reports Iran had suspended talks with the US.

Indonesia's export overhaul casts shadow over palm oil as Iran peace talks weigh on energy prices

Indonesia has announced export centralisation for key commodities including palm oil from June 1, aimed at under-invoicing, onto an already softening market.

Basmati paddy is gone at Indian trading centres; mills are paying up for what remains

India's basmati paddy has effectively run out at every major northern trading centre, and Punjab mills are now bidding against each other for what is left.

Germany's RED III adoption and higher energy prices lift European biodiesel sharply

European biodiesel rose sharply in May, with FAME 0 up from $1,382 to $1,500 per tonne and UCOME reaching $1,652, after the Bundestag adopted RED III.

Ocean freight rates jump on early peak season while Hormuz stays shut for most

Container spot rates from Shanghai rose 11% to Northern Europe and 20% to the Mediterranean, as carriers pushed peak season surcharges ahead of the window.

Vegetable oils track Brent higher as El Nino and Hormuz tensions set the agenda

Brent rose from $104 to $112 a barrel and vegetable oils moved with it, on fresh US threats to Iran and a new Iranian body to oversee the Strait of Hormuz.

India's spice markets have a supply story, but buyers aren't listening yet

Six Indian spice categories, one story: supply is genuinely tight but buyers have gone quiet. Cumin arrivals at Unjha fell over 80% from the mid-April peak.

Food and beverage costs face a second wave of commodity pressure

Oil has held above $100 a barrel through May, but the bigger story is funds rotating out of crude positions and into agricultural commodities instead.

Vegetable oils ease with Brent on stalled Iran-US talks

Brent July closed the week at $104 a barrel, down from $114, after recovering off a $100 low as signs of progress in Iran-US peace talks then reversed.

US broiler supply keeps climbing while breast meat demand cools

US chick placements topped 1.18 billion over the six weeks to May 2nd, up 2.8% year on year, according to LEAP Market Analytics, as breast demand cools.

Indian spice markets caught between tight supply and stalled export demand

Indian spice markets show one pattern across the complex: supply is tight, sometimes severely, but weak demand keeps capping or reversing every rally.

Gulf shipping disruption reshapes Indian spice export flows

Conflict in West Asia and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping Indian spice exports, with sellers avoiding freight-inclusive terms entirely.

Coffee futures slip to USD 2.88/lb on improved roaster coverage

Coffee futures fell 8.5 cents to USD 2.878/lb on the July contract, dropping below the USD 2.90 to 3.05 range that held through the Iran conflict.

Indian basmati prices climb on tight supply and Gulf shipping uncertainty

Indian basmati has risen over three weeks, with 1509 Steam up to USD 90-91 per quintal from USD 82-83 and 1718 Sela climbing to USD 94-96 per quintal.

Energy shock threatens to lift EU food inflation to 5 to 10% by 2027

The European food industry faces a renewed inflationary period, as the energy shock from the Iran conflict passes through to consumer prices over two years.

Southeast Asia biodiesel mandates reshape palm oil supply outlook

Three major Southeast Asian palm oil producers are raising biodiesel blending mandates, with Indonesia moving to B50 from July 2026 for public service fuel.

Cocoa prices break 2,500 resistance despite record fund short position

Cocoa broke above 2,500 resistance on fund short covering ahead of global grindings data, with the US-Iran ceasefire lending broad commodity support.

Australian sheep meat exports decline sharply in March as MENA shipments contract

Australian lamb and mutton exports fell to 42,656 tonnes in March 2026, down 24% year on year and 6% below the five-year average, as MENA flows contracted.

Coffee prices break below $2.90/lb support on Middle East uncertainty

Coffee futures ended the week at 286 US cents per pound, down 12.35 cents, as a deteriorating risk environment around the Iran conflict weighed on prices.

Vegetable oil prices ease on ceasefire news, palm oil outlook mixed

A two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 sent Brent crude sharply lower, putting immediate pressure across the whole vegetable oil complex.

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Wheat, corn, barley and soybeans stayed elevated on Brent crude support, though US signals that the Middle East conflict could end soon are being priced in.

Vegetable oils rebound on crude surge and biofuel policy shifts

Palm and soybean oil led a broad vegetable oil recovery on firmer Brent and new biofuel policy in the US and Indonesia, while coconut oil moved the other way.

Wheat futures rally, but cash markets tell a different story

Wheat futures have pushed higher, but a growing disconnect with cash markets points to a correction, while barley exports run at multi-year highs.

Coffee futures pull back on record Brazil crop expectations

Coffee futures fell 4.05 cents on the week to 292.85 US cents/lb on the May contract, after touching 297.45, as record Brazil crop expectations weighed.

US broiler market: weak export start, steady domestic demand

US broiler exports started 2026 slowly at 524 million pounds in January, while domestic dark meat markets have held relatively steady. What is shaping both.

Tomato paste market forecast 2026: Q2 expected stable, but California and energy risks loom for H2

Tomato paste prices are expected to soften modestly in Q2 2026 from firm early-year levels, with the market adequately supplied and not chasing volume.

Coffee approaches $3/lb as geopolitical risks support market

Coffee futures rallied toward $3 per pound, with the May contract up 12.3 cents to $2.969, as geopolitical tension and shipping risk tightened supply.

Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

Vesper models three Brent oil scenarios, at $80, $120 and $150, and traces what each would mean for global commodity markets and procurement planning.

How the Middle East conflict is moving commodity markets

As the Middle East conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude tops $105, find out how it's moving prices across commodity markets.

Coffee futures slip below $3/lb as supply improves, Middle East conflict adds volatility

Arabica futures fell to $2.83/lb as certified stock availability improved and roasters held back purchases, with the Middle East conflict adding volatility.

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

Grain markets rose over two weeks with the Middle East conflict the main driver, as Brent crude gained $8.50 to $81.40 a barrel and lifted wheat and corn.

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Sugar hit multi-year lows in mid-February before recovering, with Sugar No. 11 at $13.93/lb on 3 March as crude volatility offset a persistent global surplus.

How escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping oil shipping

Escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global oil shipping, insurance markets, and freight flows as tanker traffic collapses.

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Brent crude's rise after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is lifting vegetable oils across the board, with freight costs climbing on key shipping routes.

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

US-Iran tensions push Brent crude higher, lifting vegetable oil prices

Concern over a potential US-Iran conflict pushed Brent to $71.5 a barrel from $68.65, lifting vegetable oil prices broadly across the complex in week 9.

U.S. Treasury's 45Z guidance tilts biofuel policy toward North American crop oils

New 45Z guidance restricts eligible fuels to US, Canadian and Mexican feedstocks and removes ILUC penalties, lending support to CBOT soybean oil prices.

Container shipping rates drop ahead of Chinese New Year as demand falls short

Spot rates fell by double digits on Asia-Europe and Asia-America routes in late January, as the expected pre-Chinese New Year demand surge failed to arrive.

Corn oil prices rise $60-130/MT as Middle East tensions drive up energy and shipping Costs

Corn oil prices increase $60-130/MT from June levels, while global corn production reaches record 1.265 billion metric tons.

Vegetable oil markets rally as US biodiesel regulations and tariff threats reshape global trade

Palm oil and soybean oil rally as US limits biodiesel credits to North American feedstocks. Tariffs threaten global trade flows.

Biodiesel markets show mixed signals as geopolitical tensions support LSGO prices

FAME0 and UCOME rise on higher LSGO prices while RME drops on harvest pressure, with German HVO demand expected to quadruple this year.

Vegetable oil markets face pressure as Brent crude weakens and supply forecasts rise

Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed markets decline as Brent crude drops to $67.61/barrel. Get expert analysis on supply forecasts.

Biodiesel prices rebound after sharp decline on Middle East ceasefire

Week 26: biodiesel prices fell hard on the Israel-Iran ceasefire before recovering, as European regulatory changes reshaped HVO and UCO demand.

Oils sector calm for now: 3 key takeaways from Israel-Iran conflict so far

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after Trump announced China can continue buying Iranian oil. Analysis of Middle East tensions, vegetable oils volatility, biofuel m

Vegetable oils market declines as Middle East tensions cool

Palm oil, soy oil, and rapeseed prices fall as crude oil drops $5/barrel amid Israel-Iran ceasefire. Get Vesper's Week 26 market analysis.

Biodiesel prices strengthen on geopolitical tensions and EPA mandate boost

Week 25: biodiesel markets strengthen as the Iran conflict lifts the energy complex and the EPA proposes 5.61 billion gallon biofuel blending targets.

Vegetable oil prices surge as geopolitical tensions and biofuel mandates drive market volatility

Vegetable oil markets surge as Brent crude hits $73.23/barrel amid Israel-Iran conflict and EPA proposes higher biofuel targets.

Biodiesel prices surge as ISCC certificate suspension rocks European market

Week 24: FOB ARA biodiesel prices climb after ISCC certification is suspended for a major European biorefinery and petroleum diesel fundamentals firm.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Biodiesel markets face mixed pressures as feedstock dynamics shift in late May 2025

European biodiesel prices diverge in late May 2025 as FOB ARA UCOME slips, UCO imports surge 17% and RME strengthens on rapeseed supply concerns.

How Middle East Tensions Are Shaping the Biodiesel and Feedstock Markets

Explore the latest trends in the EU biodiesel and feedstock markets, influenced by fluctuations in LSGO prices amid Middle East tensions.

Palm Oil Hits Yearly High Amid Surging Brent Crude Prices

Palm oil prices hit a yearly high, climbing above 4,300 MYR per metric ton, as Brent crude oil surges 12.1% on Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Biodiesel market update: Growing interest to buy, yet making consensus on pricing remains a challenge

The European biodiesel complex has strengthened again on higher LSGO prices and steady buying interest, but buyers and sellers still cannot agree on price.