US beef imports reached 567 million pounds in September, the largest total on record for that month and nearly 50% more than a year earlier. It was the first full month of trade data since the administration announced a temporary tariff-free import program, aimed at bringing in an extra 300,000 tonnes of lean beef trimmings over 90 days. Just 37% to 38% of the target entered under the “affordable beef quota” in September, which analysts had broadly expected: an incremental boost, well short of the full target.
Brazil has been the clearest beneficiary. It shipped 142 million pounds of beef to the US in September, against 18 million a year earlier, and more than Australia, although Australia remains the largest supplier for 2026 so far. LEAP Market Analytics expects the real’s slide since Brazil’s election to keep Brazilian imports strong in the near to intermediate term.
Imports made up 22.8% of US beef availability over the first nine months, and per capita supply rose 1.5% in the third quarter even with commercial production down 4%. LEAP sees some supply pressure on lean trimmings, but argues that crumbling demand weighs more heavily. Spot prices for domestic 90% lean trimmings have dropped sharply over the past two months, and LEAP expects that market to average at least 10% lower next year than in 2026, with knock-on effects for the fed beef complex.
Read the full US beef market analysis here.
