The soybean complex experienced a week-on-week decrease influenced by fluctuating U.S. weather conditions and strong supply from Latin America (LATAM).
The settlement price for Soybean Oil (Jul 24) on CBOT fell to €897 | $959/mt as of 24 June 2024, down from €900 | $964/mt on 17 June 2024. Similarly, the Vesper Argentina Forward Price Index for Crude Soybean Oil (24 June 2024) decreased to €841 | $899/mt (FOB Up River, Aug) from €854 | $914/mt the previous week.
United States
Last week, the market anticipated that weekend rainfall in U.S. growing regions would help mitigate the impact of the heat. However, the USDA’s Monday report revealed that the heat had affected the crops, with only 67% rated as good to excellent, down from 70% the previous week. This decline was steeper than the 2-point drop analysts had expected, leading to a reversal in prices.
Brazil
Abiove reported that Brazil’s soy oil production in April was 876,000 mt, consistent with the previous month but 7% lower compared to April last year. Stocks increased to 316,000 mt from 292,000 mt in March.
For the week ending June 22, ANEC reported that Brazil’s bean exports remained steady at 3.7 million metric tonnes (mmt), the same volume as the previous week. Notably, ANEC has raised its forecast for Brazil’s June shipments from 13.8 mmt to 14.9 mmt. If this forecast materialises, it will represent an 8% increase compared to June of the previous year.
Argentina
In May, Argentina produced 788,000 mt of soybean oil, which is typical for this time of year. Soy oil stocks decreased to 254,000 mt from 335,000 mt in April.
From June 1-23, Argentina exported 434,000 mt of soybean oil, marking a 61% increase compared to the same period last month. Bean shipments also rose by 25% to 1.5 mmt.
Harvesting is nearly complete, and MaGyp reported that by the end of May, Argentina had 3.447 mmt of beans in stock, up from 2.3 mmt during the same period last year.
