Two forces outside the oilseed complex set the tone this week. Brent crude closed at $83.3 a barrel, up from $72 a week earlier, and pushed past $86 after Washington reinstated a blockade on Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, NOAA and the WMO confirmed a rapidly intensifying El Niño, with the probability of a severe “super” event peaking between July and September now at 80 to 90%.
The oils closest to energy markets moved first. CBOT soybean oil jumped to 73 cents per pound from 68.15 a week earlier, supported by Brent, firmer soybeans and shrinking US soy oil stocks. The USDA also lowered its old-crop soybean ending stocks forecast to 330 million bushels. Rapeseed oil followed: MATIF rapeseed rose to EUR 528 per tonne, Coceral trimmed its EU and UK crop estimate to 21.2 million tonnes, and Poland enters the new season with a harvest well short of its crushing capacity.
Palm oil sat out the rally. BMD crude palm oil slipped $5 to $1,196 per tonne under record Malaysian stocks of 2.544 million tonnes in June, although rising Brent may have helped set a floor. Sunflower oil eased slightly too, with the USDA raising its global production forecast and Romania heading toward a potentially record crop.
The firmest corner of the market is coconut. Coconut oil is recovering strongly on more expensive copra and now trades at an unusual discount to palm kernel oil, which some participants read as supportive for further gains. Olive oil moves the other way: Spanish stocks are above last year’s level, sales remain subdued, and buyers feel they have the upper hand.
Vesper’s full analysis works through the outlook for every oil, quarter by quarter out to mid-2027, including where El Niño starts to bite and which markets have a floor under them.
