midyear report 2026
Sugar spent H1 2026 in a comfortable glut, trading on oil rather than its own fundamentals.
The market remembered how to be oversupplied. The 2025/26 season closed with a global surplus and record supply, and raw sugar drifted to a five-year low in February, back to levels last seen in 2020.
From there prices took their cue from crude oil rather than sugar. Middle East tension and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted raws through late March, then ceasefire hopes and fresh Brazilian supply unwound most of that premium by mid-June. For much of the half prices sat below the cost of production for many origins, with funds heavily net short and no convincing reason to sustain a rally.
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"The global glut and Europe's tightening sit awkwardly side by side, and the bridge between them, import parity, has become the single most important number in the European market this year."
Gabrielle Del'Arco
Sugar Analyst, Vesper
One market, two directions. Which one sets your price?
The supply recovery came from all three big origins at once, with Brazil, India and Thailand adding to the world balance through the half. Europe pulled the other way, cutting beet area for 2026/27 and bracing for a materially smaller crop that kept EU white sugar relatively firm.
The white premium widened through H1 as world raws stayed weak. The report sets out Vesper's supply, demand and price outlook through 2026 and into 2027, so your next buying decision rests on a forecast rather than a headline.
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