Special Report CocoaSugarOils & FatsGrainsCoffee US Market

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The 2026 El Niño

A potentially historic El Niño is forming, and its peak is still months away. See which markets are most exposed, and when.

  • The event and its strength: What El Niño is, how strong forecasters expect this one to get, and how the setup compares with 2023 and the record 2015-16 event.
  • Impact so far, and still to come: Commodity-by-commodity chapters on cocoa, sugar, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed, coffee, wheat and corn: which markets have started to move, and which face their real test in the peak months.
  • Outlook and sourcing implications: The risk window, the hard signals to track, and why your exposure may not run in the direction you'd assume.
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AldiAryztaBaker & BakerBarry CallebautBiscuit InternationalBungeCargillDanoneFerreroFutureGourmandKerryKraft HeinzLantmännenMademoiselle DessertsMarsMead JohnsonMondelēzNestléOlamOleofinosRemiaSachsen-MilchSainsbury'sSavenciaTony's ChocolonelyUnileverUniversal NutritionVandemoorteleZaanse SchansAAKArlaAssociated British FoodsCSMGeneral MillsHuelKodiakLand O'LakesMagnumMannerMüllerPerfetti Van MellePuratosUpfieldXXL NutritionAldiAryztaBaker & BakerBarry CallebautBiscuit InternationalBungeCargillDanoneFerreroFutureGourmandKerryKraft HeinzLantmännenMademoiselle DessertsMarsMead JohnsonMondelēzNestléOlamOleofinosRemiaSachsen-MilchSainsbury'sSavenciaTony's ChocolonelyUnileverUniversal NutritionVandemoorteleZaanse SchansAAKArlaAssociated British FoodsCSMGeneral MillsHuelKodiakLand O'LakesMagnumMannerMüllerPerfetti Van MellePuratosUpfieldXXL Nutrition

What's inside

What you'll find in this report

The event and its strength

What El Niño is, how strong forecasters expect this one to get, and how the setup compares with 2023 and the record 2015-16 event.

Impact so far, and still to come

Commodity-by-commodity chapters on cocoa, sugar, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed, coffee, wheat and corn: which markets have started to move, and which face their real test in the peak months.

Outlook and sourcing implications

The risk window, the hard signals to track, and why your exposure may not run in the direction you'd assume.

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Questions

About this report

Who is this report for?

Procurement managers, buyers, and category leads at food and beverage companies who need forward-looking market intelligence to plan purchases and manage price risk.

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How often are these reports updated?

Market Outlooks are published twice a year (H1 and H2). Recap and Forecast reports are published annually. Buying Guides are updated as market conditions change significantly.

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