mid-year report 2026
Chocolate makers are buying more than cocoa, and the first half of 2026 pulled every ingredient a different way.
Cocoa set the tone with a steep selloff and a partial recovery that ended close to where it began, a reversal driven more by thin, speculative trading and West African pricing policy than by any change in the harvest.
Around it, the rest of the ingredients moved on its own logic. Sugar sat in a comfortable global glut, dairy fats and proteins turned lower after a spring rally, nuts split between tight pistachios and easier macadamias, and vegetable oils firmed on biofuel policy and energy.
This report brings all of it into one ingredient-cost view, so a buyer can see the whole bar rather than one line item at a time.
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"No one thinks current prices are sustainable long term, and the market remains one weather scare away from tightening fast. The chaotic first half was a reminder that in a thin, low-liquidity market, liquidity matters most when it disappears."
Justine White
Cocoa Market Analyst, Vesper
The cheap inputs are easy to see. The next move isn't.
Cocoa comes into H2 against a genuinely heavy balance, with a strong El Niño now the wild card that could swing the picture for 2026/27.
Sugar looks like the easy input, cheap in absolute terms, though Europe is tightening while the world stays in glut.
Dairy fats and proteins point lower, the fats complex firmed on biofuel demand, and the nut aisle is a patchwork of tight and comfortable.
The report sets out Vesper's price outlook for each input through 2026 and into 2027.
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Every answer includes full source citations, so you can follow the reasoning and use it with confidence in your own purchasing decisions.