Coconut oil prices fell again this week, extending a decline that has run since early May. The CIF Rotterdam benchmark slipped around 4% week-on-week, while the EXW Manila quote dropped close to 6%, with some traders reporting an even steeper move.
The pressure is coming from supply. Coconut oil shipments out of the Philippines have rebuilt after a thin start to the year: April exports reached 200,000 tonnes, up from 87,000 tonnes in March, lifting January–April volumes to 494,000 tonnes, close to last year’s pace. Stronger copra supply is now feeding through into prices. Softer crude and weaker rival oils added to the move.
The lauric complex moved together. Palm kernel oil also eased around 4% on the CIF Rotterdam benchmark, weighed down by soft palm oil and coconut values, and by cheaper Indonesian material after export tax changes.
Not every signal points lower. Concerns are building over the 2027 coconut crop, which could be affected by El Niño, and biofuel policy moves in the Philippines could surprise the demand side either way. Vesper’s outlook sees coconut oil staying under pressure through Q3 on strong output, with typhoon risk a source of volatility, while palm kernel oil may begin to recover as palm firms.
For procurement teams tracking lauric oils, the question is how long the supply rebuild keeps a lid on prices before seasonal and weather risks re-enter.
