Sunflower oil prices increased last week, with the November price for crude sunflower oil (6 ports) reaching $1,405/mt from $1,360/mt the previous week. FOB Ukraine prices rose to $635/mt, the highest level since December 2024.

The market structure shifted into inverse, with near-term positions at premiums while prices for more deferred positions declined slightly.

Harvest concerns mount across producing regions

Ukrainian crop estimates vary widely, ranging from 10 to 12.5 MMT compared to 12.7 MMT last year. Weather conditions and yield reports change daily, with rains in key regions deteriorating crop quality. As of October 23, 82% of Ukraine’s sunflower crop had been harvested.

Russia faces similar challenges. Market sources report a possible crop of 17.4 MMT versus 17.9 MMT expected by IKAR in September.

European production is also under pressure, with MARS reporting lower sunflower yields in its October report at 1.79 mt/ha compared to 1.81 mt/ha previously. For Europe overall, forecast ranges span 8.5–10 MMT, though most participants lean closer to 8.5 MMT.

Bulgarian processors discuss export restrictions

Bulgarian processors are facing a shortage of raw materials and competition from Ukrainian sunflower oil on the European market. The Association of Vegetable Oil Producers is discussing the possibility of restricting sunseed and rapeseed exports, according to the association’s chairman Yani Yanev, who spoke to the national radio station Focus.

Yani Yanev stated that Bulgarian processors are currently operating at a loss.

Price outlook

Market participants remain uncertain about sunflower oil’s direction. While a sideways movement has been mentioned, surprises remain possible since the harvest is not yet complete.

In November, emotional price spikes may occur if more negative crop news emerges, while a price correction in December or January is considered likely by market participants. Looking to Q1 2026, prices are expected to turn bearish, assuming the Argentinian crop performs well.

This newsarticle is part of a more comprehensive market analysis. For the full analysis, go to: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2395