Spain’s agriculture ministry has ordered the country’s olive oil mills to withdraw 12% of the oil they produce in the 2026/27 season from the market. The withdrawn oil has to stay in storage, in the mills’ own or third-party facilities, until 30 September 2027. The measure is meant to reduce oversupply and support prices for growers.
Market participants told Vesper they expect it to make little difference. Taking around 190,000 tonnes off the market leaves a lot behind: beginning stocks of 350,000 tonnes and a Spanish harvest of 1.6 million tonnes, 23% larger than last season. Some warn it could even backfire, because the stored oil returns as high opening stocks next season, and another big crop on top would leave supply heavy again.
Other producers are harvesting more too. Greece expects 30% more oil and Turkey 72% more, while Italy, Tunisia and Morocco are down. Across the seven main producers, estimated olive oil production is up 13.3% on last season.
Vesper expects extra virgin olive oil prices to fall through November and December and stay under pressure until February. How far they fall is less clear, since some producers say prices are already at breakeven and the Spanish government may step in to set a floor.
Read the full oils and fats market analysis here.
