Palm oil fell into October on estimates of rising Malaysian stocks. A Reuters poll puts Malaysian September ending stocks at 3.37 million tons, up 19.5 percent on the month and possibly a record, on strong production and weak exports. Crude palm oil FOB Indonesia is 3.6 percent lower over the month on the Vesper Price Index, and still 9.1 percent above a year ago.
Two longer-term forces point the other way. Indonesia starts official sales of B50 biodiesel in October, although the trade data does not show it yet: Indonesian exports rose to 3.51 million tons in September from 3.11 million in August. GAPKI has also warned that an extreme El Niño could cut Indonesian output next season.
In our newly published Oils & Fats Q4 2026 Market Outlook, our analyst Gehrman Kosenkov reads palm quarter by quarter into 2027, next to our AI forecast, with the same view for soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, olive and the lauric oils.
Download the Oils & Fats Q4 2026 Market Outlook
What our Oils & Fats Q4 2026 Market Outlook answers
For palm oil, the report answers:
- Will palm oil prices rise or fall in Q4 2026?
- What is the palm oil price forecast for 2027?
- How much could El Niño cut palm oil production in 2027?
- Will B50 reduce Indonesian palm oil exports?
- Can the December monsoon offset dry-weather losses in Indonesia?
- When is palm oil seasonally strongest, and when does it ease?
- How do Chinese and Indian stocks affect palm oil demand?
- How do crude oil prices feed into palm oil?
- What is the outlook for palm kernel oil and coconut oil in Q4?
- How does palm oil compare with soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil this quarter?
- Where does Vesper’s AI forecast see palm oil by Q2 2027?
