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As one of the most consumed proteins worldwide, poultry plays a critical role in global food supply chains. Fluctuations in poultry prices can have far-reaching effects, influencing everything from production costs to consumer prices. Accurate poultry price forecasts are essential for industry participants—including buyers, sellers, and traders—who rely on precise data to make informed decisions, manage costs, and optimize their market strategies. In this article, we’ll explore the importance of poultry price forecasts, key factors that impact pricing, the accuracy of AI-driven forecasts, and the influence of seasonal and geopolitical events.
Poultry price forecasts are critical for various market participants, including buyers, sellers, and traders. Given the global demand for poultry products, particularly chicken, accurate price forecasts help stakeholders make informed decisions, optimize procurement strategies, and manage risks.
Let’s consider the example of broiler chicken from Spain, as shown in the price forecast generated by Vesper’s AI-driven model below.
This forecast provides both historical prices and projected trends, giving market participants the ability to:
For buyers, such as grocery stores or food manufacturers, poultry price forecasts are essential for planning purchasing decisions. If the forecast shows that broiler chicken prices are expected to rise, buyers can secure contracts or purchase larger quantities now, locking in lower prices before an increase.
For example, a restaurant chain may observe the upward trend in broiler chicken prices for Spain in 2024, as predicted by Vesper’s model. To avoid higher costs, the chain could decide to buy more chicken in advance or negotiate contracts at current prices, ensuring cost savings.
For sellers, such as chicken producers or distributors, price forecasts help determine the best time to sell their inventory. If prices are forecasted to rise in the coming months, producers may choose to hold off on selling until they can secure higher prices.
For instance, a poultry producer in Spain might use the forecast to predict a future price increase for broiler chickens. By waiting for the price to peak, they could maximize their revenue.
For traders, accurate forecasts provide insights into price trends across different markets, helping them capitalize on arbitrage opportunities. Traders may buy broiler chickens at the current lower price and sell them later when prices increase, as predicted by the Vesper model.
Several key factors must be taken into account when generating accurate poultry price forecasts. These include:
The accuracy of poultry price forecasts, such as those for broiler chickens, depends on various factors, including the quality of data and the forecasting model used. Traditional price forecasts often rely on fundamental indicators such as feed costs, production levels, and global demand. While these methods provide valuable insights, they may not fully capture the complexity of global poultry markets.
Vesper’s AI-driven models, however, provide a more sophisticated approach to forecasting. These models analyze vast datasets, including historical prices, market conditions, and external factors, to deliver highly accurate predictions. In the figure below, we can see the accuracy rates of various chicken price forecasts: chicken ddwt (breast) shows an impressive accuracy rate of 99%, while chicken ddwt (broiler) also exhibits a strong accuracy rate of 98%. This highlights the reliability of Vesper’s forecasting models for the poultry market, providing valuable insights for market participants to make well-informed decisions based on these highly accurate predictions.
Despite the overall high accuracy, forecasting results can still vary. Continue reading to learn more about the factors that contribute to these variations in accuracy.
Despite the high accuracy of Vesper’s models, some variability may still occur due to several factors:
Vesper’s AI models are continuously updated with real-time data, allowing them to adjust to these changes and provide users with reliable forecasts. By leveraging advanced machine learning, Vesper’s forecasts offer market participants the accuracy needed to make informed decisions.
Seasonal fluctuations can have a noticeable impact on poultry prices, particularly in the broiler chicken market. These fluctuations are primarily driven by changes in demand and production cycles throughout the year:
In addition to Vesper’s AI-driven platform, which provides highly accurate price forecasts for poultry products like broiler chickens, there are several other reliable sources where you can access poultry price forecasts:
By combining these sources with Vesper’s AI-driven forecasts, market participants can gain a comprehensive view of poultry price trends, helping them make well-informed decisions regarding procurement, sales, and trading.
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