mid-year report 2026
Biofuel policy has taken the wheel in vegetable oils, and energy is no longer driving.
The first half of 2026 opened with an energy-led rally as crude climbed and the Middle East conflict pushed it higher, and vegetable oils moved with it through the biodiesel channel. What changed as the half went on was the driver.
Palm finished well above where it started even as crude eased, held up by biodiesel mandates and El Niño concerns rather than energy. Across palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower, policy is now doing the work that crude did in the spring.
Ready to get your hands on industry leading data?
"By the end of the half, palm was climbing even as crude eased, which told us the market had switched drivers. Biofuel mandates and El Niño concerns had taken over from energy as the main support, and that is the story that carries into 2027."
Gehrman Kosenkov
Veg Oils and Grains Analyst, Vesper
Is the energy premium fading, or is policy setting a new floor?
The energy premium is slowly bleeding out of the complex, but Indonesia's move to B50, Malaysia's B15 and record US biofuel obligations keep demand pulling on vegetable oils.
The pressure sits in the biodiesel-linked oils, palm, soybean and UCO, while olive oil runs its own counter-trend on ample supply.
This report sets out Vesper's price outlook into 2027, so your next buying decision rests on a forecast rather than a headline.
Prefer to check the data on the spot?
Meet Commodity Copilot. Ask any market questions, get a sourced answer in seconds.
Commodity Copilot is an AI analyst built into Vesper. Ask it anything about the ingredients in this report: current prices, forward views, supply and demand drivers. You get an immediate answer drawn exclusively from Vesper's verified database of prices, forecasts, and expert analysis.
Every answer includes full source citations, so you can follow the reasoning and use it with confidence in your own purchasing decisions.