The chocolate market experienced unprecedented turbulence in 2024, dominated by cocoa prices soaring to historic highs. The surge stemmed from significant production shortfalls in West Africa, where both Ghana and Ivory Coast struggled with adverse weather and crop diseases, creating structural supply constraints that suggest a longer-term shift in market dynamics.

Some relief emerged from the sugar market, where prices declined significantly from 2023’s record highs, supported by strong European production and exports. However, this positive development proved insufficient to offset the dramatic cocoa cost increases. Dairy markets added further complexity with their own volatility, particularly in specialized ingredients crucial for chocolate production.

The severity of these market dynamics is clearly reflected in our milk chocolate cost model, which shows compound costs ending the year nearly 50% higher than 2024. This dramatic increase has forced manufacturers to explore various adaptive strategies, from recipe reformulations to package size adjustments and operational efficiency improvements. The market has also seen an acceleration in premiumization efforts as companies attempt to pass on unavoidable cost increases.

Looking ahead to 2025, the industry faces multiple challenges. Cocoa supply constraints show no signs of quick resolution, while other ingredients markets remain volatile. The implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) in December 2025 adds another layer of complexity, potentially impacting cocoa sourcing and trading patterns, particularly from West Africa. The combination of market pressures and regulatory changes will require manufacturers to fundamentally reassess their supply chain strategies, while maintaining flexible approaches to procurement, production, and pricing.

What’s inside this report

For a deeper dive into the trends that defined 2024 and the forces shaping 2025, our full report provides detailed insights into:

  • Cocoa
  • Sugar
    • White and Raw Sugar
    • Glucose & Syrup
    • Alternative Sweeteners
  • Dairy
    • Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP)
    • Whole Milk Powder (WMP)
    • Whey Powders
  • Oils & Fats
    • Palm Oil
    • Soybean Oil
    • Rapeseed Oil
  • Tree Nuts
    • Almonds
    • Walnuts
  • Energy Markets

Each section offers comprehensive data and analysis, helping you navigate the complexities of the dairy market and make informed decisions for the year ahead.

Download the full report now to stay ahead of the curve and uncover actionable insights for 2025: https://vespertool.com/downloads/downloads-eoy-report-chocolate-2024/