Vegetable oil prices moved higher across most of the complex last week, supported by higher Brent crude prices and continued biofuel mandate momentum. July Brent closed at $114/barrel versus $101.7/barrel at the same time the previous week, driven by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Palm oil received the most concentrated support. BMD crude palm oil rose to $1,151/mt from $1,130/mt, supported by Brent strength, Malaysian biofuel news, and Indonesian production risks. Malaysia confirmed it will begin producing B15 biodiesel in June as part of a long-term path to B30 by 2030, with B12 expected to be implemented first. The move from B10 to B12 alone is expected to lift biodiesel consumption by 130,000 tonnes per year, with the further step to B15 adding approximately 204,000 tonnes annually.

Indonesian GAPKI flagged that El Niño and higher fertilizer costs could reduce Indonesian palm oil output by 1–2 million tonnes this year. Year-to-date supply has nonetheless been strong: combined Malaysia and Indonesia production for January and February reached 12.654 mmt versus 11.433 mmt in the same period last year.

CBOT crude soy oil rose to 76.53 US cents/lb from 72.52 the previous week. CBOT soybeans climbed to 1,207 US cents/bushel from 1,173, supported by strong U.S. crushing, optimism ahead of the May U.S.–China summit, and higher crude oil prices. U.S. biodiesel producers may struggle to meet higher blending mandates, which could tighten feedstock supply.

MATIF rapeseed (August contract) jumped to €528/mt from €513, while crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill (July) rose to €1,190/mt from €1,160. The German Bundestag adopted RED III on April 23, abolishing double counting for biodiesel and banning palm waste-derived fuels from 2027, which is expected to lift physical demand for rapeseed oil.

JAS crude sunflower oil (6 ports) climbed to $1,535/mt from $1,520. The European Commission lowered its 2026 sunflower seed crop forecast to 8.8 mmt from 9.6 mmt previously.

The complex did not move uniformly. Coconut oil declined to $2,203/mt CIF Rotterdam from $2,290, while extra virgin olive oil EXW Spain fell to €4,350/mt from €4,500, both reflecting their own supply dynamics.


For the full vegetable oil market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2959