Boneless skinless thigh meat demand has fallen below the baseline average for the first time in roughly two years, with spot wholesale prices averaging less than $1.23 per pound last week.
Thigh meat prices hit lowest point since early 2024
Spot wholesale prices for boneless skinless thigh meat averaged less than $1.23 per pound last week. This marked the lowest weekly average for this market since February 2024.
Demand index readings for boneless skinless thigh meat are below the baseline average for the first time in roughly two years. These readings are based on wholesale market conditions and adjusted for seasonality.
Prices are not expected to fall much further from current levels. Cold storage holdings of thigh meat remain somewhat depleted. Frozen thigh meat stocks totaled 15.0 million pounds as of the end of August, marking a 14% increase from the prior year but remaining 8.8% below the five-year average for the same date.
Protein supplies approaching record levels
Combined supplies of beef, pork, chicken, and turkey available per person in the US are on track to set an all-time high in 2025. LEAP Market Analytics projects an additional 1.3% increase in 2026.
The projection is based on assumptions for beef imports and an expectation that the turkey industry moves past disease issues. The US swine industry is proceeding cautiously. A lack of new processing capacity should restrain expansion in the broiler space, with ready-to-cook volume projected to increase 1.6% next year.
There is a path for total red meat and poultry supplies to be less robust than projected, though tight supplies by historical standards remain unlikely.
Price outlook for 2026
Wholesale and seasonally-adjusted thigh meat demand is expected to rebound into above average territory next year but remain short of readings from the past year and a half. The category is relatively attractive within the broader animal protein space, though buyer interest will be tempered somewhat by macroeconomic headwinds.
Boneless skinless thigh meat has outperformed boneless skinless breast meat on a relative basis for the better part of the past two years and is probably due for mean reversion. Boneless skinless thigh meat prices are projected to decline between 15% and 20% in 2026 from current year levels.
Whole leg meat prices are highly correlated with boneless skinless thigh meat prices but have underperformed that market this year. Assuming a correction to this imbalance in 2026, whole leg meat prices are expected to decline between 5% and 10% from 2025 price levels.
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