Last week the International Sugar Organization conference took place in London and confirmed tight global stocks for Q4-22 for both raw and white sugar, which is likely to turn into a deficit for raw up to the end of Q1-23 and find relief in Q2 because of Brazil’s new crop starts, while for white the market is expecting a surplus up to Q2-23 with India and Thailand crop that started in the last month, supplying part of the shortage in the market.
In the short-term, the main global concern is with logistics in Brazil when the new crop starts on April/23, since there is strong competition with grain export, but also with India’s export program being lower than last year and Europe not being able to supply as much as contracted to the buyers.
In the long-term – end of 22/23 season – global stocks are likely to see a big surplus of 5 MM, but the production range is too wide at the moment, as there is still a long way to go.
