FOB 6-port crude sunflower oil prices have increased to USD 1,485/mt from around USD 1,400/mt at the beginning of the year, supported by tight supply conditions and firm Brent crude prices.
According to the USDA, global sunflower seed production in the 2025/26 season reached 54.12 mmt, only around 1 mmt above the previous season. However, low beginning stocks kept overall market availability relatively tight. Production declined in Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey, while Argentina recorded higher output and Russia saw a marginal increase.
In Q2, prices could come under pressure if the Middle East conflict subsides and additional supply reaches the market. A key factor to monitor is the arrival of Argentine sunflower seeds in Europe. Argentine vessel line-up data indicate that from the beginning of January to date, around 326,000 mt of sunflower seeds have been shipped to Europe, compared with roughly 30,000 mt during the same period last year. Two cargoes that recently arrived in Bulgaria did not meet food-grade standards and were redirected to biofuel use. Relatively high sunflower seed and oil stocks in the Black Sea region following subdued trading activity earlier in the year add a further bearish factor.
In Q3, prices are expected to remain flat to slightly lower, with current expectations of ample supply supported by larger planted areas. Seasonal harvest pressure is likely to intensify in September–October, with the potential for a gradual price recovery beginning in November–December.
Read the full sunflower oil market analysis in Vesper’s Oils & Fats H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/
