CBOT crude soybean oil prices have risen sharply to 65.33 US cents/lb from 48.56 US cents/lb at the beginning of the year, supported by higher Brent crude prices and expectations that US biofuel policy measures would be finalised in March. The market anticipates these policies could increase domestic soybean oil consumption significantly.
In contrast, FOB Up River prices for Argentine crude soybean oil have increased at a slower pace. Prices rose to USD 1,125/mt from USD 1,075/mt at the start of the year, while the discount to CBOT expanded from near parity to around USD 330/mt. Unlike US soybean oil, which can be largely absorbed by domestic demand, Argentine soybean oil must remain competitively priced to secure export outlets, particularly against palm oil.
In March, market attention is focused on the finalisation of US biofuel policies. Key questions include whether the proposed mandate increase will be confirmed, whether tax incentives will be extended to biofuels produced from non-North American feedstocks, and whether the planned reallocation of blending obligations will proceed. The answers are likely to determine near-term price direction.
In Q2 and into Q3, prices could remain relatively firm, as several agencies forecast lower soybean oil export availability in the 2025/26 season. Any postponement of Brazil’s planned biodiesel mandate increase could ease supply tightness. By September–October, seasonal harvest pressure may bring prices under pressure, with a potential recovery phase from November onward.
Read the full soybean oil market analysis in Vesper’s Free Oils & Fats H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/
