Crude rapeseed oil prices (FOB Dutch Mill) increased to EUR 1,117/mt from EUR 1,030/mt in January, supported by strong prices for competing vegetable oils and higher Brent crude oil prices. This has occurred despite relatively comfortable rapeseed supply and rapeseed oil production in Europe.
Brent crude is currently trading in the range of USD 90–100/barrel due to the conflict in the Middle East, compared with around USD 60/barrel in January. Price volatility in March is being driven by fluctuating political statements and ongoing uncertainty over the conflict’s duration and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking to Q2, prices could weaken if the conflict subsides. A more structural bearish factor is the expectation of larger EU and global rapeseed production in the upcoming season. Global planted area is projected to increase by roughly 0.2–1.0 million hectares, while global output could rise by around 0.5–1.0 mmt. Between June and September, prices are likely to face additional harvest pressure. From October–November onward, post-harvest recovery and winter stock-building by rapeseed methyl ester producers could provide renewed price support.
Read the full rapeseed oil outlook and other vegetable oil outlooks on our free downloads page: https://vespertool.com/downloads/
