Polish chicken breast prices decreased 3.7% as the country reported 22 new Avian Influenza outbreaks, resulting in the culling of 2.79 million birds—the highest total among European nations currently battling the disease.
The largest single culling involved 1.5 million laying hens, representing one of the most significant disposal events in the past two years. While laying hen culls do not directly impact meat availability in the same way broiler cullings would, the situation highlights continuing stress on Poland’s production capacity.
Average chicken fillet prices across Europe have been decreasing throughout January, with Poland’s production crisis serving as the primary driver. Polish chicken breast prices fell to €4,335 per metric ton EXW, while wing prices increased slightly by 0.3% to €1,433 per metric ton EXW.
Buyers shift to alternative European origins
The Polish supply disruption is creating a market realignment as buyers seek alternative sources. France has emerged as a key beneficiary, with domestic prices rising as procurement teams look beyond Poland for supply. French leg prices have been climbing in response to this increased demand.
The divergence between Polish and French price movements marks a fundamental shift in European poultry sourcing patterns—Polish prices are falling while French prices rise. Buyers strictly sourcing Polish origin now face significant availability issues as Avian Influenza-related production decreases continue to constrain supply.
Belgium reported 10 new outbreaks with 639,008 birds killed and disposed of, while Germany recorded 19 outbreaks but only 86,559 birds affected. France reported 8 new outbreaks with 14,200 birds disposed of, following an extensive 2025 vaccination campaign that inoculated 61 million ducks.
Brazil and Thailand compete for European market share
The price gap between Thai and Brazilian chicken breasts has been narrowing, improving Thailand’s competitive position as a supplier to European markets. Brazilian chicken breast prices increased 3.4% to €1,428 per metric ton EXW, while Thai breast prices decreased 0.4% to €1,767 per metric ton EXW.
Brazilian January exports totaled approximately 350,000 metric tons, down from 415,000 metric tons in January 2025. The decrease stems primarily from ongoing effects of China’s previous countrywide import ban. China has now granted full market access to poultry from Rio Grande do Sul, a major Brazilian production hub previously banned due to Newcastle Disease.
Brazil faces significantly less European competition due to European production issues, positioning the country to increase exports in coming months.
Feed costs and emerging trends
Most European poultry compound feed prices rose throughout January due to increasing input costs. Combined with decreasing broiler prices, the trend may pressure processor margins.
Final 2025 export data reveals China became a major chicken meat exporter during the year, with raw product exports increasing 62% year-over-year to 672,000 metric tons. Russia imported 114,000 metric tons of poultry from China, becoming the single largest export region for Chinese chicken.
Market outlook
Average European chicken prices are expected to remain low or decrease further in February, with March presenting more upside potential due to anticipated demand increases.
Brazilian prices may benefit from a short-term demand increase during Carnaval but are likely to continue their downtrend into Lent, which ends April 2. Thai fillet prices are likely to continue decreasing while wing prices increase.
Ukrainian exports and prices may benefit in coming weeks from increased consumption during Ramadan. Saudi Arabia represents Ukraine’s second-largest export destination, accounting for approximately 10% of Ukrainian exports in 2025.
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