Palm oil prices pulled back this week as poor early-February export data and the Chinese Lunar New Year weighed on the market. BMD CPO settled at $1,030/mt, down from $1,043/mt the previous week, though bullish MPOB stock data provided a floor.
ITS reported exports for February 1–15 at 645,656 mt, down 11.24% compared to the same period in January. Malaysian end-January stocks came in at 2.815 million metric tons, approximately 8% below December levels and broadly in line with expectations, though stocks remain at levels that continue to cap upside price potential.
The POC Malaysia conference dominated the outlook discussion. Experts broadly agreed that Malaysian palm oil production will decline in 2026 by 0.3–0.5 mmt. Views on Indonesia were more divided, with some participants expecting growth and others a decline. On the longer-term picture, both Glenauk and Oil World indicated that the impact of land seizures in Indonesia on fertilizer use and crop upkeep is expected to start materialising in the second half of 2026, with a more tangible effect in 2027.
POC experts provided price forecasts for BMD CPO of $1,020–1,100 for H1 and $1,015–1,100 for H2 2026, against a current price of $1,030.
Elsewhere in the vegetable oils complex, CBOT soy oil edged higher to 57.08 cents/lb, supported by reports that India may lower or abolish import barriers for US agricultural products. Near-term soy oil sentiment is also shaped by the anticipated March finalisation of US biodiesel policy, widely expected to be supportive for demand. A potential postponement of Brazil’s biodiesel mandate increase to B16 could, however, add some supply to global markets.
Sunflower oil prices strengthened, with the ANJ crude sunflower oil price rising to $1,463/mt from $1,440/mt. Renewed buying of sunflower seeds in Ukraine has driven prices higher, with CPT Ukraine now seen at $700/mt. Russia’s sunflower oil exports remain at a multi-year low at 1.618 mmt for the September–December period, while Ukraine’s accumulated exports between September and January are at a record low of 1.760 mmt versus 2.271 mmt in the same period last year.
Rapeseed oil prices moved sideways, with the MJJ crude rapeseed oil price (FOB Dutch Mill) holding around €1,070/mt. MATIF rapeseed edged up to €492/mt, supported by strong Canadian canola and CBOT soybean prices. EU rapeseed supply between July and December stands at a multi-year high of 997,000 mt.
In the lauric oils segment, coconut oil prices fell considerably, with the CIF Rotterdam price declining to $2,215/mt from $2,275/mt. Fastmarkets projects Philippine coconut production to rebound to 14.2 mmt this year from 11.6 mmt last year, and the ICC forecasts global coconut oil production recovery to 3.515 mmt from 3.155 mmt. Both coconut oil and palm kernel oil prices are expected to decline this year, though a full return to 2023–2024 levels is not anticipated, as the production recovery restores supply to earlier levels rather than creating a surplus.
This article is part of a more comprehensive vegetable oils market analysis. For the full analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2722
