Extra virgin olive oil prices (EXW Spain) peaked at around EUR 5,000/mt in November 2025, declined to EUR 4,300/mt in January, and have since risen back to approximately EUR 4,600/mt. Refined olive oil prices have remained relatively stable in the range of EUR 3,500–3,600/mt EXW Spain.

The International Olive Council estimates global olive oil production at around 3.4 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season, roughly 4% lower than the strong rebound recorded in 2024/25, but still relatively high compared with historical averages. The 2025/26 season is generally viewed as a normalisation year rather than one characterised by supply shortages.

EU production, accounting for roughly 60% of global supply, is expected to decline slightly due to drought, heat, and pest pressure in key producing regions, but output is still projected to remain above the recent five-year average. Spain’s production is forecast at around 1.37 mmt versus 1.419 mmt in the previous season. Opening stocks were significantly higher at the start of the season, at approximately 226,000 tonnes versus 141,000 tonnes a year earlier, partly offsetting the lower production.

Regional production trends vary considerably. Italy is forecast at around 300,000 tonnes (versus 250,000 tonnes last season), Greece at around 220,000 tonnes (versus 250,000 tonnes), Turkey at around 290,000 tonnes (versus 505,000 tonnes), and Tunisia at around 450,000 tonnes (versus 340,000 tonnes). These contrasting trends explain why the global outlook points to only a moderate year-on-year decline rather than a sharp contraction.

On the demand side, EU consumption is projected at around 1.425 million tonnes, with exports at approximately 765,000 tonnes and imports at roughly 200,000 tonnes, indicating a more stable market balance following two highly volatile seasons. Prices are likely to stay slightly above previous season levels, with a broadly sideways to mildly firmer trend anticipated through the remainder of the season.

Read the full olive oil market forecast in Vesper’s Free Oils & Fats H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/