Sunflower oil prices continued their upward trajectory in late October as deteriorating crop conditions in Ukraine and Russia raised concerns about tighter supplies heading into 2026. The November-December crude sunflower oil price for six Black Sea ports increased by $20/mt to $1,375/mt, with the declining crop making buyers increasingly nervous about securing adequate supply.

Ukrainian crop estimates revised downward

The Ukrainian sunflower crop outlook has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks. Two analytical companies reported to Vesper that the Ukrainian sunflower harvest could reach only 10.5-10.8 mmt compared to 12.7 mmt last year. While two other analytical firms provided higher estimates of 11.2-12.5 mmt, both indicated that downward revisions are likely as the harvest progresses.

Poor yields and excessive rainfall are reducing both crop size and quality across Ukrainian growing regions. Despite these challenges, vessel lineup data shows Ukraine exported 292,000 mt of sunflower oil during the first two weeks of October compared to 198,000 mt in full September. However, farmer selling remains limited as producers hold back for higher prices while requiring cash.

Russian production also under pressure

The situation in Russia is evolving on a weekly basis. The crop, initially expected to reach 17.9 mmt this season versus 16.6 mmt last year (excluding occupied territories), could now be around 17.75 mmt according to some sources, while others estimate 17.4-17.5 mmt.

European and Turkish crops add to tight supply picture

Beyond the Black Sea region, the EU sunflower crop is expected to reach around 8.6-8.7 mmt versus 8.7 mmt last year. Turkey, a major importer of sunflower seeds and oil, will also have a smaller crop at 1.2 mmt compared to 1.33 mmt last year. The season also starts with lower beginning stocks, and import demand from Turkey is expected to be strong.

Market outlook remains supportive

Vesper interviewed 13 market participants from various companies, and all except one expect prices to remain strong or rise slightly in October and November due to the poor crop and low beginning stocks. Most participants anticipate prices staying flat or slightly decreasing in December before weakening in Q1 2026 with the arrival of the Argentinian crop.

Interview participants included buyers, sellers/producers, and Black Sea analytical agencies. The overall outlook is neutral to slightly bullish for the period under three months, and slightly bearish for the period beyond three months as South American supply enters the market.


This newsarticle is part of a comprehensive market analysis on the global vegetable oil markt. For the full analysis, got to: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2373