NewEvery Forecast now shows its key arguments

The Forecast

Know when to buy, in markets that never sit still

The renewed Forecast brings together human expertise and AI to give you a price outlook for every quarter ahead, and the arguments driving the market. For buyers setting their strategy in volatile markets.

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White sugarWest EU, DAP

EUR 600per tonne, 14 Oct
Current market, Oct to Dec 2026BullishExpected move more than +5%

↗ Bulls

  • EU beet sugar output may fall sharply in 2026/27 on lower area and drought.
  • Brazil's rain-slowed crush keeps world replacement costs high.

↘ Bears

  • Buyers resist: cost-of-living pressure and changing diets are cutting demand.
  • Old-crop stocks above historic levels still weigh on nearby business.
Next four quarters
Q4 2026Bullish
Q1 2027Bullish
Q2 2027Stable
Q3 2027Slightly bearish

Price volatility

On average, prices move 2% every week and 6% every month

Unless your product gets hit by a price shock.

2023
  1. +39%White sugarSugar · Oct 2022 to Oct 2023
  2. −35%Milling wheatGrains · Oct 2022 to Oct 2023
2024
  1. +286%Cocoa beansCocoa · Apr 2023 to Apr 2024
  2. +104%Palm kernel oilOils and fats · Nov 2023 to Nov 2024
  3. −69%VanillaSpices · May 2023 to May 2024
2025
  1. +139%Desiccated coconutNuts · May 2024 to May 2025
  2. +138%OrangesFruit · May 2024 to May 2025
  3. +101%CoffeeBeverages · Mar 2024 to Mar 2025
  4. +78%EggsIngredients · Jun 2024 to Jun 2025
  5. −33%SalmonFish · May 2024 to May 2025
2026
  1. +129%WPC 80Dairy · Jun 2025 to Jun 2026
  2. −90%PotatoesVegetables · Jun 2025 to Jun 2026

Market drivers

A price never moves for one reason

About a dozen forces move the price of a food commodity. Any of them can push it up or down, and the mix shifts from product to product and from week to week. The Forecast weighs all of them for you.

How it works
  1. Seasonality↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  2. Weather↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  3. Production↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  4. Stocks↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  5. Demand↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  6. Exports and imports↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  7. Energy↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  8. Feed and input costs↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  9. Exchange rates↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  10. Policy and trade rules↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  11. Animal disease↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
  12. Futures and technicals↗ Pushing up↘ Pushing downNot moving it now
An illustration, not market data: each product has its own mix of drivers, and it keeps shifting.
  • The 12 drivers: Seasonality, Weather, Production, Stocks, Demand, Exports and imports, Energy, Feed and input costs, Exchange rates, Policy and trade rules, Animal disease, Futures and technicals. Each can push a price up (bullish) or down (bearish).

The buying decision

So when do you say yes?

What other intelligence sources don't solve for you:

Most of it looks back

Price history, last month's trade figures, yesterday's news. It tells you what happened, and leaves you to work out what comes next.

It's unclear what to look for

Weather, stocks, energy, exchange rates, demand. Which of them moves your price this quarter changes from product to product.

The risk ahead stays hidden

The driver that turns the market this quarter is often not the one you were watching. You find out when the next quote comes in.

Inside the Forecast

The Forecast brings the drivers together

So you can form your buying strategy, and defend it.

Where the arguments come from

Analyst reportsMarket analysis written by Vesper analysts and partners
NewsFiltered for each product and country
FundamentalsTrade flows, production, consumption, stocks
Technical analysisMoving averages, RSI, MACD
AI forecastThe model's price line, accuracy shown

Whey, dry, USCME Call, EXW. Updated weekly; as shown on 11 Oct 2026

1Price outlook
Q4 2026, Oct to DecSlightly bullish

The AI forecast model points to a modest rise through December. Strong export demand and remaining fourth-quarter coverage needs should outweigh higher US production, although the recent rally is likely to slow.

Bearishbelow −5%
Slightly bearish−1 to −5%
Neutral−1 to +1%
Slightly bullish+1 to +5%
Bullishabove +5%
2Key arguments

↗ Bulls

  • Record export growth is removing US dry whey faster and supporting prices through year-end.Fundamentals Dry whey, total export from United States, volume
  • Late buyers still need fourth-quarter whey powder coverage.Analyst report WPC falls fast, Vesper market analysis, 23 Sept 2026

↘ Bears

  • US dry whey production remains above last year's level, adding supply into the year-end market.
3AI forecastHow the AI forecast works

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Reading the Forecast

What the Forecast tells you

Three things, in the order you need them: which way the price is heading, when that changes, and what could prove the call wrong.

Which way

The Forecast indicator

The Forecast gives you an outlook for the current market and for each quarter a year ahead. It weighs all the elements into one indicator: the band your price move is expected to sit in, next to the price level from the AI forecast. See how the AI forecast works.

Bearishmore than −5%
Slightly bearish−1% to −5%
Neutral−1% to +1%
Slightly bullish+1% to +5%
Bullishmore than +5%

Neutral is a view too. It says the price holds within 1% either way. It does not mean the Forecast is unsure.

When it changes

A call for each quarter

Each quarter, about a year out, gets its own call with its own arguments, so you see where the price goes and when it turns.

Q4 2026Slightly bullish

Strong export demand and remaining fourth-quarter coverage needs should outweigh higher US production.

The turn
Q1 2027Bearish

Expanding cheese and whey output should loosen supply after year-end coverage is completed.

Dry whey, US, as shown on 11 October 2026.

What could prove it wrong

The key arguments

Bulls push the price up, bears push it down. Each one names its source.

↗ Bulls

What pushes the price up. On a bullish call these are the reasons behind it; on a bearish call they are the risk to watch.

↘ Bears

What pushes the price down. On a bearish call these are the reasons; on a bullish call they are the risk to watch, and if they grow stronger the call can change at the next update.

Mixed signalsNot all signals behind this indicator point the same way. Review before making a decision.

The Forecast shows this warning when its signals do not line up. Low alignment means more risk in the outlook, so check the arguments before you commit.

"We look at Vesper's forecasts on a daily basis. Knowing what prices are expected to do in three, six, or nine months is the most important feature."

Jan Bert BangaGlobal Procurement Manager, Nestlé

Methodology

How the Forecast is made

Step 1

Everything Vesper tracks for this price

The material behind the arguments, from Vesper analysts, partners and data sources.

Step 2

AI collects the key arguments

It keeps the bulls and bears that matter most for this price right now, and links each one to its source.

Step 3

The Forecast indicator makes the call

It weighs the arguments and the AI forecast into the expected move for each quarter, about a year out.

Step 4

You decide

Read the call, check the arguments that matter to you, and set your strategy.

Get started

See the Forecast on the prices you buy

Every call comes with its arguments and their sources, so the case for buying now, buying more or waiting is ready before the meeting starts.

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AI analyst

Still have questions? Ask Commodity Copilot

Commodity Copilot is Vesper's AI analyst, built on Vesper's prices, forecasts, supply and demand data, news and analysis. Ask it anything about your markets and get a specialist answer, with links to where it comes from.

Commodity CopilotExample answers, October 2026
What's driving cocoa prices right now?

Cocoa on ICE Europe is at EUR 5,049 a tonne (19 Oct 2026). Pushing up: Ivory Coast port arrivals for 1 to 18 October were down 41% on last year, and heavy rain is slowing the start of the main crop. Pushing down: ICE cocoa stocks are at their highest in more than two years, and North American grindings fell 2.5% in the third quarter. The Vesper forecast eases through 2027.

  • Smaller Ivory Coast Cocoa Deliveries Lift Prices, barchart.com, 19 Oct 2026
  • Will cheaper Christmas treats bring back consumers?, Vesper Global Cocoa Market, 7 Oct 2026

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FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the Forecast different from the AI forecast?

The AI forecast is the model's price line, up to 12 months ahead, labelled as AI and shown with its accuracy. It is one input. The Forecast is the full view around it: the key arguments, the AI forecast and the Forecast indicator with its call per quarter.

Is the AI forecast gone?

No. It is still there, labelled as AI, on the Forecast tab. It is now also one of the signals the Forecast indicator weighs.

Does it take seasonality into account?

Yes. When a product has a strong seasonal pattern in that period, such as harvest pressure or festive demand, it counts as an argument.

Why did the call change since last week?

The Forecast is rebuilt every week. A new report, a news story, a price move or a data release can shift the balance, and the new arguments show what changed.

Is this buying advice?

No. The Forecast shows where the evidence points and why. The decision, and how you weigh it against your own plan, stays with you.

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