Mid-year report 2026
Flour costs climbed into spring, then gave most of it back by midyear
Wheat set the tone for bakery flour in the first half of 2026. Prices started the year cheap, ran up steeply into spring on energy and weather worries, then eased back through late June without fully unwinding the increase. Underneath it, supply stayed comfortable for most of the half, which is why every rally kept finding a ceiling.
For a bakery buyer that meant flour was meaningfully more expensive through March and May than it was in January, and it is only one line in a cost base that also runs through starches, dairy, oils, sugar, egg and nuts.
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"The comfortable supply story capped the downside risk of waiting, while the energy and weather premium meant anyone who covered forward in January locked in a clear advantage over anyone buying at the March-to-April peak."
Gehrman Kosenkov
Veg Oils & Grains Analyst, Vesper
Where do bakery costs go from here?
Q3 looks like the seasonal low for wheat as harvest pressure builds, but the heatwave in Europe and El Niño risk in Australia and India could set a floor, and the oils complex is holding above pre-conflict levels on biodiesel policy even as energy eases. Sugar sits comfortable, dairy and egg are moving on their own stories, and nuts stay firm.
This report puts every bakery ingredient in one place and sets out Vesper's quarter-by-quarter outlook across each one, so your next buying decision rests on a forecast rather than a headline.
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