The most active July arabica contract finished the week 8 cents higher at 272.35 US cents per pound, finding firmer-than-expected support at the $2.70 level after testing it on Tuesday, according to Sucafina’s weekly analysis.
The driver is roaster buying. Commercial gross long positions, the CIT report’s closest proxy for roaster coverage, rose by 6,910 lots this week to 63,537 lots, the strongest level of seasonal coverage since 2022. Roasters are fixing now rather than waiting, and the decision reflects two specific sources of uncertainty.
The first is timing: the upcoming July/September contract roll is introducing hesitation for uncovered buyers around when to act. The second is weather risk. With physical coffee prices still elevated and ICE-certified stocks remaining low, any cold event in Brazil during the winter months has the potential to trigger a disproportionate price spike. Roasters locking in now are effectively paying to remove that tail risk from their Q3 and Q4 cost base.
The reverse scenario is worth watching too. If Brazilian weather stays benign and no frost materialises, roasters may find themselves overbought relative to actual demand. That overhang would create selling pressure and could push prices toward the lower end of the current range. Sucafina sees this two-sided tension keeping the market in a 265–275 cent band for the week ahead.