Six Indian spice categories. Six versions of the same situation: supply is genuinely tight, but the buyers have gone quiet.

Cumin arrivals at Unjha fell more than 80 percent from the mid-April peak, dropping to 12,000 to 13,000 bags by early May. Prices still drifted lower. Bangladesh completed its purchases and stepped away. Gulf demand has been frozen since late February, when the Iran conflict shut down the Dubai channel. Three months later, that market has not reopened. Delhi ordinary grade cumin eased from $245.3 to $241.1 per 100kg over a period of thin arrivals. The market is searching for a floor it cannot build without a buyer.

Coriander tells a similar story. Arrivals at Rajasthan’s major trading centres are a fraction of seasonal capacity, yet Delhi Badami grade slipped $2.1 over the period as buyer resistance at current price levels proved stronger than supply pressure. Export performance has been solid, up 5 percent in volume and 10 percent in value year-on-year through January, which has prevented a deeper move lower.

Turmeric has genuine weather damage, with 20 to 25 percent below-normal production estimated across Maharashtra, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu. But a roughly 20 percent expansion in national sowing area this season has absorbed the supply tightness. Erode Gatta opened at $161.1 per quintal and closed near $156.8 to $158.9, having moved in circles for two weeks. Gulf disruptions keep export buyers in hand-to-mouth mode.

Red chilli is entering its annual summer recess at Guntur, India’s largest chilli trading centre, just as production runs 25 to 30 percent below last year. Guntur went dark on May 11 and is expected to reopen around June 8. Late-season quality issues have complicated buying even before the closure: arrivals were showing reduced pungency and elevated moisture, making them unsuitable for export. The trade view is that the quality premium commanded by cold-storage lots will widen noticeably once the mandi reopens.

Black pepper farmers in Kerala have been sitting on four months of new crop rather than selling at prices below their threshold. Production is estimated 20 to 25 percent below normal in Kerala, and roughly half the usual output in Karnataka. An important correction to the trade press narrative: Vietnam’s first-quarter 2026 production came in at approximately 155,000 tonnes, actually higher than the same quarter last year. The claims of a catastrophic decline in Vietnamese output appear materially overstated.

Small cardamom’s published auction averages have been falling, but the decline reflects large participants bringing lower-quality material to auction rather than weakening demand for premium stock. Better 7.5mm lots are largely holding firm. Kerala’s pre-monsoon rainfall deficit raises real concerns about next-crop timing. Guatemala’s 2025-26 crop is running around 45 percent below its long-term average.

Across all six categories, the trade view is consistent: meaningful crashes are not supported by the supply math. What is missing is not supply tightness. What is missing is a buyer.


For the full spices market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3005