Sweet whey powder is showing a clear divide between Europe and the United States in early 2026, and that regional divergence has become the defining feature of the market.
In Europe, prices have risen well above the stable-to-subdued picture originally anticipated. Rising energy costs and higher logistics expenses, partly driven by the Middle East conflict, have pushed production costs sharply higher, feeding directly into asking prices. On top of that cost dynamic, buying activity from Middle Eastern buyers has added further upward pressure. European SWP prices have now moved above US levels, reversing a pricing relationship that was previously considered supportive for EU export competitiveness.
In the United States, the market is moving in the opposite direction. New processing capacity has come online, and high cheese production is generating large volumes of liquid whey, adding supply to an already well-stocked market. US dry whey stocks are rising, and January production was up significantly year-on-year. The combination of improved supply and higher inventories points to modestly lower US prices in the near term. However, the pricing gap created by European prices moving above US levels should support US exports into Q2 and help provide a floor.
The outlook for European SWP remains firm in the short term, with cost-price dynamics providing little reason to expect prices to ease. In the US, modest price softening is likely, with export demand acting as the key buffer.
Read the full SWP market analysis in Vesper Free Dairy H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/butt
