Federally inspected broiler slaughter in the US rebounded to 178.4 million head in the first week of February, a 5.6% increase from the same week last year, following a weather-related slowdown in the final two weeks of January. Winter storms across the south-central and south-eastern US impacted road conditions and transportation during that period, temporarily disrupting supply chain movement.

Despite the strong rebound, LEAP Market Analytics (LMA) expects the pace of industry expansion to slow considerably in the coming weeks and months. Prior chick placements suggest year-on-year slaughter growth should be running closer to 2.0% rather than the 4.0%+ currently being recorded. LMA also notes anecdotal reports of chicken house losses from the accumulated snow and ice, though the broader supply chain impact appears to have been relatively minor and temporary.

Looking ahead, US ready-to-cook broiler production is projected to increase 1.7% in 2026, followed by a further 1.3% increase in 2027. Average slaughter weights are projected to grow 0.7% in both years, though recent data showing higher-than-expected head counts alongside underwhelming finishing weights introduces some uncertainty into those projections. LMA notes it may end up close to the mark on total RTC volume while being too conservative on slaughter numbers and too optimistic on weights.

In the wing market, wholesale spot prices have recovered over the past month, benefiting from the demand window between the Super Bowl and March Madness, but the rally has already faded, with the national average for whole wings unable to climb above $1.25/lb. After adjusting for seasonal effects, wing demand appears to have improved slightly compared to late last year, but remains below the 1992–2024 baseline average. LMA draws a parallel to the 2022–2023 wing market slump and is inclined toward the view that current weakness extends for longer, citing macroeconomic headwinds and a shift in consumer preferences toward boneless chicken at the expense of bone-in wings.

LMA projects the whole wing market to gravitate toward $1.25/lb overall in 2026, with a modest improvement to around $1.50/lb in 2027.

On feed costs, the latest WASDE reinforced expectations that corn and soybean meal will remain relatively affordable, providing some margin relief for integrators.


This article is part of a more comprehensive broiler market analysis. For the full analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2724