US broiler production is forecast to reach 49.0 billion pounds ready-to-cook in 2026, marking a 2.1% increase from 2025 levels, though downside risks remain as breeder flock inventories continue trailing prior-year totals.
The broiler-type hatchery supply flock stood at just under 60.0 million birds as of January 1, down 1.9% from the previous year. Despite smaller layer numbers, productivity gains pushed December broiler chick hatchings to an all-time high of nearly 890 million, up 1.3% year-over-year.
Breeder productivity across 2025 reached its highest level since 2014, with average hatchings per layer posting a 3.1% increase from a year earlier in December. The productivity improvement helped offset reduced layer inventories, though analysts remain skeptical of runaway growth scenarios.
Pullet hatchings intended for US placement declined 3.8% year-over-year during the third quarter of 2025 and 3.1% during the fourth quarter, pointing to continued pressure on breeder flock replacement. The gap between actual and implied breeder inventory levels suggests either convergence by midyear or additional downside to flock size.
Cold storage holdings of broiler meat reached 819.7 million pounds at the end of 2025, up 3.0% from the prior year and marking the largest end-of-month inventory since January 2024. The figure remained below the five-year average for December 31.
Frozen wing stocks retreated to 55.1 million pounds at year-end, falling short of the prior-year total and remaining below the five-year average. Wing demand showed signs of improvement after adjusting for seasonal effects, though spot prices for whole wings are expected to remain below $1.50 per pound through 2026.
The production outlook assumes broiler head counts will increase just 0.7% in 2026, with finishing weights contributing 1.3% to the total production gain. This weight assumption represents the second-largest annual increase over the past decade after 2020.
This newsarticle is part of a more comprehensive market analysis on the broiler market. For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2632.