US broiler exports got off to a slow start in 2026, while domestic dark meat markets have continued to show relative stability. Here is what is shaping the market this month.

Exports stumble out of the gate in January

Total US broiler exports in January came in at 524 million pounds, a 2.3% increase from the same month last year but more than 50 million pounds below forecast. The comparison is complicated by the fact that January 2025 was the weakest January export total since 2016, making the year-on-year gain a low bar to clear.

The broader export outlook remains cautious. Geopolitical tensions tied to the US-Iran conflict, energy price pressures, volatile foreign exchange markets and a stronger US dollar are all weighing on conditions. Competition from Brazil adds further structural headwinds. A modest recovery in exports is possible, but a significant near-term uptick is not expected.

It is worth noting that the US broiler industry has become considerably less reliant on exports than in the past. The export share of domestic ready-to-cook production has averaged in the 13% to 14% range recently, compared to periods around 2011-12 when it regularly exceeded 20%.

Dark meat markets hold steady

On the domestic side, the leg quarter market has quietly firmed from the mid-$0.40s per pound through winter into the low-$0.50s, with demand index readings remaining at least 15% above the long-term baseline average. This category has maintained above-average demand for close to two and a half years.

Compared to more volatile cuts such as boneless skinless breast meat, tenderloins, wings and boneless skinless thighs, the leg quarter market has been notable for its relative consistency: the highs have been lower, but the lows have been considerably less severe. Average annual leg quarter prices are expected to hold in the low-$0.50s through the balance of 2026 and into 2027.

Bone-in thighs have been more volatile, shifting from outperforming leg quarters on a relative basis in 2024 to underperforming more recently. Demand conditions in this category are described as moving in a more favorable direction again.


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