US domestic per capita availability of broiler meat reached a new all-time quarterly high during Q3 2025, climbing to 18.9 pounds on a boneless weight basis. The 3.5% year-on-year increase marked a significant milestone for the broiler market as production surged.

Wholesale prices languish amid seasonal headwinds

Wholesale spot prices languished across most of the broiler complex during Q4 2025. The demand side of the market ran into seasonal headwinds and cooled off cyclically.

Industry growth has slowed incrementally while exports have perked up, keeping tighter constraints on year-over-year increases in domestic availability more recently. LEAP Market Analytics projects domestic per capita availability advancing at less than 1.0%, and potentially under 0.5%, for most of 2026.

Market shows signs of recovery

The broiler complex is regaining footing following seasonal doldrums that accompanied the holiday season, with supplies advancing at a slower pace. Boneless categories and wings are leading the charge so far.

Boneless skinless breast meat averaged nearly $1.26 per pound on a spot, wholesale basis last week, marking the highest weekly average since the last full week of September 2025. Adjusting for seasonal effects, demand slumped to its weakest point since early 2024 during Q4 2025, but has already recovered to somewhere near the baseline average based on preliminary winter data.

Retail pricing remains stable

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the average retail price for boneless skinless breast meat at slightly over $4.15 per pound in December, representing a nominal increase from November. The price remained one of the lower readings of the past 10 months.

The relative position of the broiler category from a retail perspective is hardly more accommodating for consumers when compared to beef than it is right now. Comparisons to the pork complex are less favorable but remain in the neutral area.

Outlook for 2026

Despite cross-species price comparisons that could support a bullish case for broiler demand and prices, LEAP Market Analytics maintains a more cautious view given a shaky macroeconomic situation, including a slump in the quick-serve restaurant space among key players.

The wholesale boneless skinless breast meat market should still top $1.75 per pound and potentially test the $2 mark this spring on moderately above average demand. However, prices are projected to decline between 10% and 15% overall in 2026 compared to 2025.

Conditions appear favorable for composite broiler meat prices to decline overall this year compared to last, though moderating expansion should limit the damage for integrators. Tenderloins are currently underperforming their historical relationship with boneless skinless breast meat, while boneless skinless thigh meat is overperforming.

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