U.S. broiler meat production is projected to reach 48.7 billion pounds in 2026, representing a 1.5% increase from 2025 levels, according to LEAP Market Analytics’ latest outlook.
The forecast marks a downward revision from an earlier projection of 2.1% growth after analysts adjusted weight expectations. Ready-to-cook broiler production increased 2.1% in 2025 to reach exactly 48.0 billion pounds, but finishing weight projections for 2026 have been reduced to reflect a 0.7% increase rather than the initially anticipated growth rate.
While the 1.5% production increase appears modest, it falls below the average industry growth rate observed over the past decade. Once expected export growth and population increases are factored into the equation, the projected rise in domestic per capita availability of broiler meat becomes relatively limited.
Placement data signals continued expansion
Recent hatchery data suggests production growth could still exceed current forecasts if head count trends persist. The 194.7 million broiler chicks placed on farms in the most recent week represented a 1.5% increase from the same week last year. Over the past six weeks, total placements of 1.17 billion chicks are running 2.1% ahead of the prior-year pace.
These placement figures indicate producers have not yet implemented the anticipated slowdown in head counts. If current placement trends continue, ready-to-cook volume growth could reach 2.0% or higher for the year.
Export outlook provides upside potential
LEAP Market Analytics projects U.S. broiler meat exports to increase 3-4% in 2026, which would moderate domestic supply growth without significantly disrupting the domestic market balance.
USDA-ERS data revealed November 2025 shipments of approximately 604 million pounds, landing just 0.2% above the prior-year total of 602 million pounds. Cumulative January through November 2025 shipments of 6.11 billion pounds remained 1.3% behind the 2024 pace. Barring a substantial December increase, total annual shipments will decline for a fifth consecutive year in 2025, though outside of 2024’s 7.4% drop, all other recent years featured declines of less than 1.0%.
The export outlook reflects competing factors. The dollar has yielded ground against most foreign currencies over the past year, and industry stakeholders are pursuing new trade deals and expanded access with existing partners. However, Mexico has adopted an increasingly distant posture toward the U.S. broiler market, while Brazil, Thailand, China, and the European Union—particularly Poland—present stiff competition.
Dark meat demand outperforms expectations
Dark meat categories continue demonstrating strong demand performance and are outpacing the front half of the bird on relative terms compared to the 1992-2024 baseline average.
Wholesale and seasonally-adjusted demand for leg quarters has moved well into above-average territory and is expected to remain there for at least the next few quarters. This strength is projected to produce mid-$0.50s USDA quotes on a bulk, fresh basis this summer.
The boneless skinless thigh meat category experienced a demand setback during the fourth quarter of 2025 but has returned to solid ground. The category is positioned to outperform boneless skinless breast meat on relative terms in 2026 and likely 2027 as well. Bone-in thighs have returned to a more balanced state with boneless skinless thigh meat that better aligns with historical patterns. All dark meat cuts are expected to rally in 2027.
This article is part of a more comprehensive broiler market analysis. For the full analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2667