Tree nut markets are picking up momentum heading into Q2, with buyers and sellers across cashews, macadamias, almonds, and pecans working out their strategies for the months ahead. Here’s where each market stands.

Cashews: market activity returns after TET holidays

Cashew markets are showing renewed interest following the TET holiday period, with buyers and sellers reassessing their positions ahead of Q2.

On the supply side, the total world crop for 2026 is estimated at between 5.2 and 5.6 million metric tonnes. Cambodia and Ivory Coast remain the two largest suppliers, while Vietnam continues to dominate processing, handling approximately 70–80% of the world crop. West African countries are increasing their own processing capacity, now accounting for 15–20% of total world crop processing, a development noted as positive for local economies, CO2 emissions, and sustainable traceability.

Overall, the 2026 world crop is reported as good, with growth expected. A notable exception is the Vietnamese crop, which is slightly down, meaning Vietnamese processors are expected to import more from Cambodia and West Africa to meet their needs.

One development to watch: adjustments to export fee rebates in Ivory Coast could have an impact on processing industries and prices. The situation is still developing.

On the demand side, overall demand is described as adequate, with health-related marketing for nuts continuing to perform well. A notable shift occurred in 2025, with China overtaking the US as the second-largest consumer market after India. Slower US demand was attributed to import duties and softer consumption. The favorable euro exchange rate is expected to support EU consumer demand in 2026.

Prices for raw cashew nuts (RNC) remain firm. A temporary increase in kernel prices is possible as demand picks up, but prices are expected to ease again once larger crop volumes arrive. The recommendation from the market is to be covered for nearby through Q2 shipments and monitor the market closely.

Macadamias: tariff developments and crop uncertainty in focus

The macadamia market is progressing in an orderly way, with attention focused on demand developments and potential tariff changes.

A key topic is the possible removal of China’s 12% import tariff on macadamias from South Africa. This tariff currently puts South African product at a disadvantage compared to Australian and Chinese domestic supply. If removed, it would improve South Africa’s competitive position in China. At this stage, however, no decision has been confirmed.

In the US, the tariff situation for nuts remains unclear, though nuts appear to be exempt for now. Despite the uncertainty, interest from the US market has improved compared to last year.

On the demand side, new product launches containing macadamias are being seen across several markets, supporting longer-term demand growth when prices are attractive.

Crop expectations remain broadly unchanged. Larger crops are anticipated in South Africa and Australia as newer orchards reach full production. China remains the biggest question mark: while Chinese production increased significantly last season, whether that level can be sustained is uncertain.

Almonds: weather during bloom creates uncertainty

Almond sellers temporarily withdrew from the market last week due to bad weather coinciding with the start of bloom, a critical period for the new crop. Concerns about the impact on new crop development caused sellers to pause offering. Some offers have since returned as sellers with disappointing year-to-date export numbers look to move product.

A carryover of 500–600 million lbs is currently expected, with the new crop estimated somewhere between 2.5 and 3.0 billion lbs based on planted acreage.

Pecans: halves in short supply until new crop

Pecan kernel prices are firm, with halves currently trading between $6.50 and $6.80 per lb. Availability of halves is limited and is expected to remain so until the 2026 new crop arrives in November or December. The recommendation is to be covered for halves through the end of the year.


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