Tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and shifting supply conditions are creating a complex picture across tree nut markets. Here is what is moving cashews, macadamias, Brazil nuts and pecans this month.

Cashews: prices on the move as new crop arrives

The cashew kernel market is showing renewed activity after a quiet period, with prices moving up and offers reflecting broader global uncertainties. The global crop is expected to grow by around 10%, led by Cambodia and Ivory Coast, with local processing capacity in Africa also expanding.

Demand is generally healthy, though US import tariffs, economic conditions and rising freight rates from Asia are all factors to watch. With the new crop now becoming available, supply is not expected to be an issue. That said, the conflict in the Middle East poses a risk to shipments, and buyers are advised to secure Q2 coverage.

Macadamias: activity picks up, tariff questions loom

The macadamia market is becoming more active following the return of Chinese buyers after the Lunar New Year. Discussions around a possible removal of China’s 12% import tariff are ongoing, which, if enacted, would benefit South African origin over Australia and domestic Chinese supply.

Crop expectations are still taking shape. Australia has published an encouraging early forecast for its 2026 crop, South Africa is also expected to produce more, and China remains the biggest unknown with figures varying widely between sources.

Brazil nuts: near-term supply tightening

April shipment positions are fully sold out and May is becoming limited. Heavy rains in Bolivia have delayed raw material arrivals, transport conditions remain difficult, and the 2026 crop is expected to come in around 10% below normal, though sufficient to meet global demand. Core buyers have been active and are securing early cover.

Pecans: shipments down 35% year-on-year

Monthly in-shell shipments in January were down 35% compared to 2025, with China and the Middle East the main drivers. A near-term recovery is not expected. Availability of Jr MM halves is limited, with prices ranging between $6.65 and $6.95 per lb, and buyers are advised to secure coverage on halves.

For the full nuts market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2799