A record harvest season in South America is setting the tone for corn oil markets in early 2026, with ample raw material availability keeping grain prices stable and supporting crushing margins.

Brazil’s Conab revised its total crop production estimate upward to 138.87 million metric tons, reflecting optimism around second-crop planting conditions. Argentina is projecting a record 62 million metric ton harvest, a 24% increase compared to the previous cycle, according to the Rosario Board of Trade. Combined with the record US crop already in the books, grain availability across the Americas is broad-based.

January trading played out in two distinct phases. The first half was quiet, with low liquidity linked to collective holidays and maintenance shutdowns at industrial plants and refineries. Activity picked up in the second half as market players returned and buyers moved to secure Q1 programmes. Corn oil prices faced downward pressure during the month, tracking the depreciation of the soybean complex and the wider grain availability. That price adjustment reopened arbitrage windows, making Brazilian exports attractive again.

On the demand side, buyers maintained firm interest throughout January, with clients from the Middle East particularly active. Corn oil’s discount relative to sunflower oil created opportunities for volume growth.

Among origins, the picture is mixed. The US has already moved toward Q2 2026 positioning, with prices firmer than December following CBOT movement. Argentina and Europe are offering their remaining Q1 volumes of degummed corn oil, maintaining an upward price trend for those final lots.

In Asia, China opened January with refined oil offers above $1,520/mt for the MENA region before becoming more competitive toward month-end, primarily driven by freight adjustments.

Looking ahead, Ramadan and the Chinese New Year are shaping near-term buying behaviour, with buyers seeking to fix Q2 positions to manage availability and pricing risk.


This article is part of a more comprehensive corn oil market analysis. For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2710