The Asia-Europe shipping market is entering a period of constrained capacity and rising costs as the traditional pre-Chinese New Year rush gains momentum. Spot rates have climbed for three consecutive weeks, driven by strong year-end volumes and seasonal demand as shippers prepare for the mid-February holiday period.

Major carriers including Maersk, CMA CGM, and MSC are implementing new Peak Season Surcharges and rate increases effective immediately in 2026. Space availability is expected to remain limited in the coming weeks as carriers maintain strict capacity management.

Front-loading amplifies seasonal pressure

Beyond typical seasonal demand, poor schedule reliability is prompting shippers to front-load cargo by shipping earlier than usual to avoid potential delays. This behavior is intensifying the capacity crunch as procurement teams return to work in early January.

The combination of seasonal peak demand and preventive shipping strategies is creating a tighter market environment than standard pre-CNY patterns would suggest.

Carriers plan post-holiday capacity adjustments

Looking beyond the immediate peak, carriers are already preparing for the expected demand drop after Chinese New Year. The Gemini Cooperation has announced blank sailings for late February, specifically weeks 8 and 9, to align capacity with anticipated lower volumes.

This planned capacity reduction indicates carriers expect the current tight market conditions to be temporary, with normal seasonal patterns resuming after the holiday period.

Suez Canal sees cautious eastbound return

While full reopening of the Red Sea route remains uncertain, late 2025 marked a shift as carriers began cautiously returning to the Suez Canal, almost exclusively in the southbound direction from Europe and the US back to Asia.

The operational logic centers on risk management. Vessels returning to Asia, often empty or with lighter loads, present a lower risk profile compared to fully laden westbound ships. Using the Suez Canal for the return leg cuts 7 to 10 days off transit time compared to the Cape route, helping carriers improve vessel availability in Asia.

Diverging carrier strategies on Suez return

Carrier approaches to the Suez Canal return vary significantly:

CMA CGM has led the reinstatement of the Suez route for southbound services, with Ocean Alliance partners COSCO, OOCL, and Evergreen largely following this approach.

Maersk conducted a trial in December 2025 by sending the Maersk Sebarok through the canal southbound, but emphasizes this remains a single-vessel test rather than a full network return.

Hapag-Lloyd maintains the most cautious position. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen has stated that any return must be gradual and orderly, with no large-scale routing changes confirmed yet. MSC continues individual vessel tests but has not committed to a full network switch.

The Premier Alliance is preparing to resume Red Sea transits, contingent on assurance that attacks on vessels have ceased.

European ports prepare for potential westbound flow

While current Suez Canal usage remains predominantly eastbound toward Asia, European ports are preparing for the scenario where northbound traffic resumes through the canal.

The primary concern is vessel bunching. If carriers collectively switch to the shorter Suez route for Europe-bound cargo, these vessels would arrive simultaneously with ships still completing the longer Cape of Good Hope journey, creating a concentrated arrival wave.

Antwerp-Bruges is promoting night logistics at terminals and depots to distribute cargo handling across extended hours, while deploying digital tools like CPU to streamline pickup operations. Hamburg acknowledges that despite 24/7 coordination efforts, waiting times will likely be unavoidable if multiple carriers switch routes simultaneously. Rotterdam is conducting impact analyses and encouraging use of real-time data platforms like Portbase to anticipate arrival peaks.

Current port delays and blank sailing rates

Rotterdam and Antwerp are experiencing average delays of approximately 2 days. German ports show more variation, with Hamburg averaging 5 days of delay while Bremerhaven averages 1 day.

Container markets remain soft as carriers continue trimming East-West capacity. From late December to late January, 8% of sailings have been withdrawn, representing 53 of 704 scheduled departures. Cancellations concentrate on Europe-America routes at 45%, Asia-America at 38%, and Asia-Europe/Mediterranean at 17%.



Read the full market analysis here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2562