For food manufacturers in pizza, pasta, and snacks, H2 2026 brings a mix of near-term stability and building supply-side risks. Some key ingredients are offering procurement windows that may not last. Others are facing structural challenges that are likely to keep upward pressure in place regardless of the season.
Here’s the overview.
Wheat flour is volatile but broadly pressured lower by a record global harvest. The main risk heading into Q2 is weather: April and May are when Northern Hemisphere yield potential gets locked in, and any shock during this window can quickly shift market expectations. The 2026/27 global crop is expected to come in below this season’s record, which could support prices from Q4 onward.
Tomato paste looks stable in Q2, with supply adequate and buyers having room to negotiate. H2 is more uncertain: California has reduced acreage by at least 10%, Italian processor stocks are lean, Spain’s contracted acreage is undetermined, and rising European energy costs from Middle East tensions add a production cost floor independent of crop dynamics.
Chicken prices in Europe have fallen significantly since November 2025, driven by a sharp increase in Brazilian poultry imports following the lifting of the import ban. Brazilian exports to Europe have nearly doubled year-on-year. The main risk to the current downward trend is avian flu: Poland has 38 reported outbreaks, and wild bird migration season runs through May.
Beef prices are expected to keep rising due to structural herd contraction. The EU herd has shrunk from almost 80 million heads in 2016 to 72 million heads in 2024, and the self-reinforcing nature of herd contraction means the supply problem compounds over time. EU beef imports rose roughly 18% in 2025. Per capita consumption is expected to decline further as prices stay elevated.
Pork markets are under pressure from a different direction: African Swine Fever outbreaks in Spain have prompted China to ban Spanish pork imports, causing Spain to redirect volumes to European markets. The sharpest discounts are on high-value cuts such as bacon.
Mozzarella and Cheddar have both moved higher since early February, with lean stocks and firm demand absorbing production faster than expected. Q2 coverage is being locked in, and the H2 milk decline is expected to support further price recovery.
Olive oil is entering a normalisation phase after two volatile seasons, with prices expected to hold broadly stable. Soybean oil is elevated on US biofuel policy expectations, with a 34%+ increase since the start of the year.
The full Vesper Pizza, Pasta & Snacks H2 2026 Market Outlook covers all of the above in detail. Free download: https://vespertool.com/downloads/