The global nut complex is splitting between tightening tree-nut supply and a still-soft hazelnut market, according to ofi’s latest monthly update.
Pistachios face the sharpest squeeze. The 2026 US crop is projected near 800 million lb, down about 50% from the 1.6 billion lb received in 2025. A severe storm in Turkey’s main growing region, which accounts for roughly half of its production, has further trimmed the competitive alternative, with Turkish supply now forecast down 5% on the year.
Peanuts are tightening too. Wet weather across the US Southeast has slowed planting, and higher cotton prices have pulled acreage away from peanuts. The USDA pegged plantings at 65% complete as of 24 May, and growers now expect the acreage decline to run nearer 20-25% than the USDA’s original 14.3%. Kernel prices have firmed in response, with little near-term scope to weaken.
Almonds held steadier. The Almond Board of California’s April position report showed year-to-date receipts just under last year’s, with the 2026 crop estimated at 2.7 billion lb. Shipments and sales came in below expectations for the month, reflecting hand-to-mouth buying, but the industry remains in a comfortable sold position.
Hazelnuts stayed the soft spot. Prices have steadied after falling from their late-2025 highs, with a large upcoming crop estimated above 800,000 MT and weak demand keeping sentiment bearish. A floor near $9/kg is expected, supported by Turkey’s TMO price levels for the new season.