US beef imports totaled 599 million pounds in March, a 19% increase from the same month last year and well above LEAP Market Analytics’ (LMA) forecast, lifting the Q1 (Jan-Mar) total to nearly 1.71 billion pounds. That’s more than 15% above last year’s Q1, and it pushed imports to 23.4% of total US beef supplies for the quarter, a new all-time high that overtakes the previous record of 20.2% set in Q1 2025.

Part of the front-loading is structural. Imports have run hotter in recent years during Q1, especially in January, as countries race to fill the US tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for the full year as quickly as possible. With beef prices climbing, that race is intensifying.

The tariff wildcard

The administration announced plans to address high beef prices through executive orders that would temporarily suspend or lower tariffs on imported beef and ease regulations on cattle ranchers. The orders were then delayed, reportedly to give the administration time to finalise details, possibly in response to pushback from ranchers and other parts of the farm-state Republican base.

How the TRQ and tariff debate resolves will shape the back half of the year. Even without a policy change, LMA has raised its US beef import outlook for the rest of 2026 and for 2027 in response to the strength in the numbers so far.

Demand cracks

Imports helped limit the year-over-year deficit in US per capita beef availability to just 1.0% in Q1 despite a sizable drop in domestic beef production. The longer-term picture is record protein supply for US consumers, with combined per capita availability of beef, pork, chicken, and turkey climbing into new territory.

The cattle and beef complex has had a reputation for absorbing rising supply on the back of strong demand. That reputation is starting to fray. The 90% lean trimmings complex, both domestic and imported, has underperformed expectations. Wholesale beef prices have struggled to keep pace with the fed cattle market, packer margins are deep in the red, and packers have begun outsourcing some of that pressure to feedyards by cutting bids for replacement stock.

LMA believes the negative ripple effects on upstream cattle markets are just getting started.


For the full beef market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2983