The ground beef market experienced a sharp price increase this week, with 73% lean ground beef prices climbing from just over $270 per cwt to the $300 area, approximately a 10% jump in one week.

The spike in the grinds complex is providing a boost to end meats as wholesale beef trade shows firmer conditions through midweek. The choice cutout is positioned to add at least $5-$6 overall, with chucks, rounds, and loins moving higher while other primal categories remain near unchanged.

Sudden reversal follows recent weakness

Last week’s average of just over $270 per cwt represented a significant low point for 73% lean ground beef. The subsequent climb to the $300 area marks a notable reversal in the grinds complex.

The movement in ground beef comes as chucks, rounds, and loins catch a bid at this point on the calendar, which is not unusual according to market patterns. However, seasonal tendencies turn bearish quickly for chucks and rounds as the back half of fall approaches, with mostly neutral trends expected for loins.

Analysts expect retreat in coming months

Market analysts project this ground beef price recovery to be fleeting. Expectations point to 73% lean ground beef retreating back into the $250-$275 range through the final stretch of 2025.

This would imply relatively stable to slightly weaker demand, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, compared to spring and summer of this year. However, demand readings remain significantly elevated compared to the 2007-2024 baseline average across most of the beef complex, including most whole muscle cuts.

The choice cutout is still targeted to reach a local bottom around $340 per cwt during the fourth quarter, with the $330s and $340s expected to be common through the first quarter of 2026. This week’s average should land in the low-$370s.

Market context

Packers are facing losses of around $250 per head based on industry cost and returns models, after paying nearly $240 per cwt for fed steers last week. The 5-area weighted average for cash live cattle prices is projected to pull back to around $220 per cwt by year’s end.

For procurement managers working with ground beef, the current price level at $300 per cwt represents a significant move from last week’s $270 level, though projections suggest movement back toward the $250-$275 range in the months ahead.


For the full beef market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2383