European raw milk production delivered strong volumes throughout 2025, with output accelerating particularly in the second half of the year. That momentum is carrying directly into 2026, with the seasonal flush expected to deliver significant volumes through Q1 and into Q2.
An important development this season is the variation in milk quality across countries. The Netherlands and Ireland are showing notably strong milk composition, with fat and protein content running significantly higher year-on-year. This means that even at similar fluid milk volumes, the actual output of butter, cheese, and powder products is higher than raw production numbers alone might suggest, adding further supply pressure to dairy product markets.
Liquid prices are already very low, well before the milk flush fully kicks in, confirming high raw milk availability across the region.
Cost prices are expected to increase slightly, as ongoing tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil, electricity, gas, and grain prices globally. These cost increases affect farmers, but are not currently expected to push margins into negative territory.
Read the full raw milk market analysis in the Vesper Dairy H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/
